Key Highlights

  • Rogers guided fourth-quarter sales to $215 million to $225 million and adjusted EPS to $0.90 to $1.10.
  • Ultra Clean Holdings guided fourth-quarter revenue to $800 million to $860 million after record third-quarter revenue of $759.0 million.
  • Ribbon Communications guided fourth-quarter revenue to $233 million to $247 million and adjusted EBITDA to $40 million to $47 million.
  • Precision Drilling guided fourth-quarter U.S. margins to US$9,500 to US$10,500 per day, from US$7,653 in the third quarter.
  • National Bank Holdings targeted fourth-quarter earnings of a dollar or more per share after a $0.20 third-quarter loss.

What Fourth-Quarter Targets Did Companies Set in October 27 Earnings Reports?

Seven companies reported on Tuesday, October 27, with explicit fourth-quarter targets. Rogers (NYSE:ROG) guided net sales to $215 million to $225 million, Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ:UCTT) revenue to $800 million to $860 million, and Ribbon Communications (NASDAQ:RBBN) revenue to $233 million to $247 million. Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) guided revenue to $225 million to $255 million, and DMC Global (NASDAQ:BOOM) sales to $154 million to $164 million.

Precision Drilling (NYSE:PDS) guided U.S. operating margins to US$9,500 to US$10,500 per utilization day, and National Bank Holdings (NYSE:NBHC) stated a target of a dollar or more of earnings per share for the quarter. The reports do not state share reactions, so none are described here.

Rogers: What Does a Lower Fourth-Quarter Guide Mean After a 300 Basis Point Margin Jump?

Rogers makes engineered materials for electric vehicles, automotive safety, mobile devices and wireless infrastructure. Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $1.39 against $0.90 a year earlier, and net sales rose 9.3% to $236.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin up to 20.2% from 17.2%. The fourth-quarter guide of $215 million to $225 million in sales, gross margin of 32.5% to 33.5%, adjusted EPS of $0.90 to $1.10 and adjusted EBITDA of $37 million to $43 million implies a midpoint sales figure about 6.8% below the third quarter (calculated). No full-year guidance was given.

Ultra Clean Holdings: Can Record Revenue Keep Growing Into the Fourth Quarter?

Ultra Clean Holdings makes gas delivery and fluid subsystems for semiconductor capital equipment makers. Record third-quarter revenue of $759.0 million, up 49% from a year earlier, landed above the top of the company's August revenue and EPS ranges, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.15. Fourth-quarter guidance is revenue of $800 million to $860 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.11 to $1.35, a revenue midpoint about 9.4% above the third quarter (calculated). Inventories rose to $723.3 million, and nine-month free cash flow was about negative $162.0 million (calculated).

Ribbon Communications: How Big Is the Fourth-Quarter Step-Up?

Ribbon Communications provides IP and optical networking and cloud communications software. Third-quarter revenue was $218.7 million, up 1.5% from a year earlier, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 and adjusted EBITDA of $26.8 million. Fourth-quarter guidance of $233 million to $247 million in revenue, adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to $47 million and non-GAAP gross margin of 53.5% to 54.5% implies midpoints about 9.7% and 62.3% above the third-quarter revenue and EBITDA (calculated). Cash was $40.4 million against $96.4 million at year-end.

Enphase Energy: Why Is the Fourth-Quarter Revenue Guide So Much Lower?

Enphase Energy makes solar microinverters and batteries. Third-quarter revenue was $293.3 million with non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, and fourth-quarter revenue is guided to $225 million to $255 million, about 18% below the third quarter at the midpoint (calculated). Guidance includes non-GAAP gross margin of 40.0% to 43.0%, non-GAAP operating expenses of $76.0 million to $80.0 million and about $51.2 million of safe harbor revenue, versus $85.0 million in the third quarter. Management assumes fourth-quarter sell-through falls about 10%.

DMC Global: Will Fourth-Quarter Earnings Hold Without Tariff Refunds?

DMC Global owns Arcadia, DynaEnergetics and NobelClad. Third-quarter net sales rose 14% to $172.8 million and adjusted EPS was $0.48, with adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million including $5.4 million of tariff refunds and $13.6 million excluding them. Fourth-quarter guidance is sales of $154 million to $164 million and adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $13 million, reflecting seasonal moderation and a planned maintenance shutdown at Arcadia's California facility. The sales midpoint is about 8.0% below the third quarter, and the EBITDA midpoint about 15.4% below the third-quarter figure excluding refunds (both calculated).

Precision Drilling: How Realistic Is a 30% Rise in U.S. Rig Margins?

Precision Drilling reports in Canadian dollars, and third-quarter revenue rose 15.0% to C$531.7 million. U.S. operating margin per day fell to US$7,653 from US$8,700, and the guide of US$9,500 to US$10,500 for the fourth quarter implies a midpoint about 30.7% higher (calculated), as reactivation costs slow. Canadian margins are guided to C$13,500 to C$14,500 per day, and the 2026 capital budget was lifted to C$275 million to C$285 million. A conference call was set for Wednesday, October 28.

National Bank Holdings: Can a Dollar of Earnings Follow a Loss?

National Bank Holdings, a Denver-based bank holding company, posted a third-quarter GAAP net loss of $0.20 per share and adjusted EPS of $0.06 after a $40.6 million provision on a handful of commercial credits. Management stated a fourth-quarter target of a dollar or more of earnings per share and gave no other numerical guidance. Common equity tier 1 capital fell to 11.69% from 12.29% in June, and net interest income rose to $112.9 million. The conference call was set for Wednesday, October 28, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time.

Fourth-Quarter Targets Compared: Which Guides Step Up and Which Step Down?

Calculated from the midpoints, three guides sit above their third-quarter base: Ribbon Communications revenue about 9.7% higher, Ultra Clean Holdings revenue about 9.4% higher and Precision Drilling U.S. margins about 30.7% higher. Three step down: Enphase Energy revenue about 18.2% lower, DMC Global sales about 8.0% lower and Rogers sales about 6.8% lower. Rogers' adjusted EPS midpoint of $1.00 compares with $1.39 in the third quarter, a drop of about 28.1% (calculated).

National Bank Holdings is the outlier: a target of at least $1.00 per share compares with adjusted EPS of $0.06 in the third quarter, a gap of $0.94 or more (calculated). Ribbon Communications' EBITDA midpoint of $43.5 million is the widest stated step-up of the group, at about 62.3% over the third quarter (calculated).

What to Watch Next: Precision Drilling and National Bank Holdings Calls on October 28

Precision Drilling and National Bank Holdings were both set to hold conference calls on Wednesday, October 28, where the US$9,500 to US$10,500 margin path and the affected credits behind the dollar-per-share target were the expected topics. Enphase Energy plans a megawatt-scale solid-state transformer system by the end of 2026. Rogers, Ultra Clean Holdings, Ribbon Communications and DMC Global will next report fourth-quarter results, where the guided ranges will be tested, though the reports do not state dates.