Key Highlights

  • JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised his SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) price target to USD 500 from USD 240 after third-quarter results, keeping an Overweight rating, as the shares closed 7.79% higher at USD 159.31 on Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
  • The target rests on about 20 times estimated 2028 GAAP earnings of USD 24.41 per share, after the bank more than doubled its 2027 and 2028 forecasts.
  • JPMorgan now expects 2027 revenue of USD 254 billion and an annualised pace of about USD 400 billion by the end of 2027, against USD 178 billion forecast by Morgan Stanley.
  • At USD 500, the equity value would be between about USD 6.6 trillion and USD 6.8 trillion depending on the share count used, against about USD 2.16 trillion at Wednesday's close.

The Target and the Numbers Behind It

JPMorgan raised its target on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) to USD 500 from USD 240 on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, the day after third-quarter revenue rose 161% to USD 14.58 billion. Analyst Doug Anmuth kept an Overweight rating and more than doubled forecasts for 2027 and 2028. The bank now models 2027 revenue of USD 254 billion and 2028 GAAP earnings of USD 24.41 per share, valued at about 20 times. Twenty times USD 24.41 gives USD 488.20, so the USD 500 target equals about 20.5 times, by simple arithmetic. The new target sits about 214% above the USD 159.31 close. Morgan Stanley holds a USD 300 target and UBS USD 230, so published targets now span more than a twofold range.

How the Case Depends on AI Compute

The model works only if SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) keeps scaling rented AI capacity. Third-quarter revenue annualises to about USD 58 billion, so USD 254 billion in 2027 requires more than a fourfold rise within about five quarters, calculated from published figures. Most of that growth would have to come from the AI unit, which generated USD 7.56 billion in the quarter, because Starlink and launch grow far more slowly. Capacity is the driver: Morgan Stanley assumes 8.3 GW of computing capacity at year-end, while UBS estimates that reaching 13 GW would cost about USD 350 billion. The valuation therefore rests on forecast 2028 profit rather than current earnings, since third-quarter earnings of USD 0.35 per share annualise to only about USD 1.40.

Risks and What to Watch

The main risk to the JPMorgan case on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is execution: revenue must rise more than fourfold while fourth-quarter capital spending alone runs at USD 35 billion to USD 40 billion. The second is funding, since chip purchases at that pace depend on debt markets, and credit default swaps on SpaceX debt, a gauge of default risk, reached a record in early October. The third is dispersion: targets from USD 230 to USD 500 show no agreement on how to value AI capacity. Investors should watch the lockup expiry of up to 1.3 billion shares on Thursday, October 22, 2026, the quarterly filing, the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28 and the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that JPMorgan reaches USD 500 for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) by applying about 20 times to 2028 earnings that assume revenue rises more than fourfold by 2027. The case is a bet on AI compute scale rather than on rockets or Starlink, and rival targets of USD 230 and USD 300 show how far views diverge. The next catalysts are the October 22 unlock, the quarterly filing and the Fed decision on October 28. Price targets are analyst opinions, not guarantees, and this is not investment advice.