Key Highlights

● Goldman Sachs sees the growth of AI capex peaking.

● Growth peaking means spending rises more slowly.

● Anthropic's IPO filing cites roughly $895 billion in AI commitments through 2045.

● Oracle completed a $20 billion Capital raise.

Capital expenditure, or capex, is the money companies pour into long-lived Assets such as data centers, servers and power equipment. For the past few years, AI capex has been the engine of the stock market. Goldman Sachs now sees the growth of that spending peaking, according to news reports, which also noted a warning from a research firm that AI spending has outpaced operating cash flow.

The distinction is important. Growth peaking means spending keeps rising, just more slowly, not that budgets are being slashed. But markets often trade on the rate of change, and a slowing rate can be enough to trouble investors who have priced in endless acceleration.

A rebound anyway

That debate did not stop buyers on Monday, November 9, 2026. The S&P 500 jumped 173.08 points to 7,549.94, its best day since April 8, and the PHLX Semiconductor index rocketed to 10,033.93, its best session since July 30, according to market coverage. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) soared, Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) jumped, and storage and optical names surged.

The rally came after a brutal stretch. Market data reported that Goldman's own broad AI basket fell sharply in October and stood roughly a quarter below its peak heading into November 4. Then the post-midterm sell-off hit, with the Nasdaq Composite falling into correction territory on November 5, reports said.

How the pieces fit

Put simply, a lot of bad news may already have been priced in. Strategists credited cleaned-out positioning and forced dealer hedging for the bounce. A JPMorgan strategist called the sell-off "an intra-cycle reset and another deleveraging event in the AI supercycle," while a Morgan Stanley strategist said it "is likely the final stage of this correction."

The spending pipeline also remains enormous by any measure. Anthropic's IPO filing cites roughly $895 billion of AI infrastructure commitments through 2045. Financing is also in focus: reports said Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) recently completed a $20 billion capital raise split between Equity and senior notes, and noted elevated levels on its credit-default swaps. Oracle shares climbed Monday in what was described as a technical rebound.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) shares, for their part, helped lead the Dow higher, alongside Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT).

The Fed is watching too

Capex is now a macro story as well as a market one. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that "this stuff with the AI Data Center build out is just, to my eyes, starting to look like old fashioned Demand overheating," according to market data. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said "the risk lies on the Inflation side of our dual mandate." Futures markets heavily favor a rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting.

That creates an awkward loop: the more AI spending heats the economy, the higher rates could go, which raises the cost of financing more spending.

Spending Pace Is the Question

The next round of capex signals comes fast. Applied Materials reports Thursday, giving a read on chipmakers' equipment orders. Cisco, CoreWeave and Nebius also report this week, offering views on networking and AI-cloud demand. Nvidia's results on November 17 will be the big one, since its sales are a closely watched gauge of what hyperscalers are spending. Investors will be listening closely for guidance on 2027 budgets, where any sign of slowing growth would test Goldman's thesis against Monday's optimism.