Key Highlights

● The VIX showed 18.60 before the open, up 8.1% from Thursday's 17.20 close.

● November VIX futures at 19.21 trade above spot, signaling expected uncertainty.

● Bitcoin fell to an overnight low of $76,400 after a $6.3 billion exploit.

● Midterm elections on Nov. 3 and jobs data on Nov. 6 anchor the calendar.

The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, showed 18.60 in a market pre-open quote on Friday, up 8.1%. Another market-data page showed 18.52. The index closed Thursday at 17.20, up 1.7%, after trading in a range of 16.21 to 17.36, according to one market-news site.

The VIX measures the volatility that Options traders expect from the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. A rise toward 18.6 does not signal panic. Readings above 20 are generally treated as elevated. But it does show that traders are paying more for protection as tech stocks slide.

The immediate trigger is the drop in megacap technology. S&P 500 futures were down 1.13% and Nasdaq-100 futures down 2.62% at roughly 8:03 a.m. ET, per a market quote snapshot. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was down about 7% before the bell after reporting a trailing free Cash Flow outflow of more than $42 billion. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was down about 25% after weak fourth-quarter guidance, according to media reports.

Single-stock volatility has been extreme this Earnings season. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell 12.6% on Thursday. Reddit (NYSE:RDDT), Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) and Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) each dropped more than 15% in after-hours trading Thursday, and Xerox (NASDAQ:XRX) lost 40% in Thursday's regular session, according to one report.

Overseas markets showed the same nervousness. Media reports said South Korea's Kospi fell nearly 4% and Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2.3%, while Europe's technology sector dropped about 2%, led by a 5% slide in ASML (NASDAQ:ASML).

Crypto adds to the stress. One crypto news outlet reported that Bitcoin fell to an overnight low of $76,400 after Binance suspended deposits and withdrawals following a $6.3 billion exploit, the largest crypto hack on record.

Futures point to more ahead

November VIX futures were at 19.21 at about 5 a.m. Central European Time, one market-news site reported, above the spot index. When near-term futures trade above spot, it usually means traders expect uncertainty to stay high or rise over the coming weeks.

The calendar explains why. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The October jobs report is due Nov. 6. Oil is above $104 a barrel after Iran said four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and one report said regional officials fear fighting could resume around the vote.

One market commentary, citing a study of nine midterm years since 1990, notes that the VIX has tended to rise into October and fall around Election Day. If that pattern holds, some of the current premium could fade once the results are known. The same commentary also notes that the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950, though past patterns are no guarantee.

A higher VIX tends to go with wider intraday swings in the S&P 500 and makes hedging more expensive for portfolio managers. It also matters for systematic funds that cut Equity exposure as volatility rises, which can add to selling pressure during sharp moves.

Still, a VIX near 18.6 sits well below crisis levels, and the broader market has not been weak. Through Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.9% for October and the Dow about 2.8%, based on closing levels. Health care hit a record high on Thursday.

What to watch

Watch whether the VIX holds above 18 after the 9:30 a.m. ET open and whether it approaches the 19.2 level of November futures. Midday remarks from Fed officials Mary Daly and Alberto Musalem could move rate expectations. A late-day Reversal in tech could pull the gauge back toward Thursday's 17.20 close.