Highlights

  • KeyBanc upgrades Cleveland-Cliffs to Overweight with a USD 14 price target
  • Stock gains 17.5% in a week, currently trading at USD 10.66
  • Positive Q2 earnings driven by cost-cutting and record steel shipments

KeyBanc Capital Markets has upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) from Sector Weight to Overweight, setting a new price target of USD 14.00 following the company’s second-quarter 2025 results. The stock, which is currently trading at USD 10.66, has risen 17.5% over the past week.

The upgrade stems from a more favorable risk-reward profile supported by improved operational efficiency, cost management, and steady domestic steel demand. In Q2 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons, although the average selling price declined. Notably, adjusted EBITDA turned positive at USD 97 million, reflecting the impact of recent cost-cutting measures, including the idling of six facilities, which lowered steel unit costs by USD 15 per ton.

KeyBanc also noted that the company has revised down its 2025 capital expenditure and SG&A guidance, with further cost improvements expected in the second half of the year. The firm’s analysts highlighted Cleveland-Cliffs’ improved cost structure and efficiency gains as central to the rating shift.

The brokerage pointed to potential market share gains in the automotive steel segment, supported by U.S. trade policies such as Section 232 tariffs and broader trends in manufacturing onshoring. These developments are expected to benefit domestic producers like Cleveland-Cliffs, especially as the company expands its footprint in higher-margin product lines.

KeyBanc also acknowledged Cleveland-Cliffs’ ongoing efforts to sell non-core and idled assets, a move aimed at reducing financial leverage. Despite a total debt load of USD 7.7 billion, the company maintains a current ratio of 2.04, suggesting a stable liquidity position.