Key Highlights

  • The BLS did not publish 12-month CPI changes for October 2026 because October 2025 data were never collected.
  • The gap stems from a 2025 lapse in appropriations; September's annual CPI rate was 3.7%, with core at 2.6%.
  • Forecasts had called for annual rates of 3.9% headline and 2.8% core, against a 3.7% and 2.5% nowcast.
  • Monthly CPI rose 0.4% and core 0.3%, and PCE readings, which the Fed tracks, are unaffected by the missing data.

The US annual Inflation rate for October 2026 was not published alongside the Nov. 10 Consumer Price Index release. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had announced earlier that it would not report 12-month percentage changes for indexes lacking October 2025 data, after the federal Government Shutdown prevented the collection of consumer prices that month.

The omission removes the headline year-over-year figure that markets usually track. Monthly readings were published: the CPI rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after 0.6% in September, and core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month.

Why the Annual Rate Is Missing

The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations. For most CPI series, the agency could not publish October 2025 indexes. As a result, it cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable. Tables in the release carry a note that both October and November 2025 values are not available.

The BLS points readers to a fact sheet on handling missing data on its website. The release itself still carries index levels: the CPI-U rose 0.2% before seasonal adjustment to 337.511 (1982-84=100), and the CPI-W rose 0.1% to 331.147. The Chained CPI-U also rose 0.2% before seasonal adjustment.

What Forecasts Had Shown

Before the release, forecasts had called for annual headline inflation to accelerate to 3.9% from 3.7% in September, and annual Core Inflation to 2.8% from 2.6%. The Cleveland Federal Reserve's inflation nowcasting model had projected 3.7% for headline CPI and 2.5% for core. The two projections differed by 0.2 percentage point for headline and 0.3 for core.

Against those projections, the monthly data came in higher. Headline CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, and core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% surge in September, shelter 0.3% and food 0.5%.

Monthly Data Carry the Detail

With annual rates missing, the monthly sequence shows the trend. Headline CPI rose 0.6% in September and 0.4% in October. Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, September and October. Energy prices rose 5.2% in September and 0.7% in October, and gasoline rose 9.1% and then 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, though gasoline fell 0.7% in October before seasonal adjustment.

Within core, transportation services rose 0.8% after 0.6%, recreation rose 0.8% and medical care 0.3%, while used cars fell 1.2%. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase.

Fed Gauges and Market Reaction

The missing data have no effect on the calculation of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed tracks to gauge progress toward its inflation target. PCE readings are running above 3%, and inflation overall runs well above the 2% target. The US-Israeli war with Iran has lifted oil prices, and Import tariffs introduced last year have added to the cost of living.

The report arrived after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 25-basis-point December hike has his support and that a 50-basis-point move "should be considered" if inflation runs higher. Fed funds stand at 3.75% to 4.00% after a quarter-point increase in September, and the Fed held rates at its October meeting. Money markets price about 28 basis points of tightening. The 2-year Treasury Yield rose 17.4 basis points to 4.721%, gold fell 2% to USD 4,057 an ounce and the dollar index gained 0.3% to 102.01.

The Data Calendar Ahead

The BLS publishes the November CPI report on Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, a day after the Fed's Dec. 9 meeting. Wholesale inflation figures arrive on Friday, in the same week as the CPI report. The annual rate resumes in the tables only where October 2025 index values exist, and the table note lists both October and November 2025 values as unavailable.