Thursday's session delivered a simultaneous move across four major asset classes, with crude oil surging on fresh Trump-Iran threats, equities recovering despite ongoing geopolitical risk, Bitcoin climbing amid mixed safe-haven and risk-on signals, and the U.S. dollar remaining broadly supported by hot inflation data.

Key Highlights

  • WTI oil at $90.78, up on Trump threats: Front-month WTI crude rose to $90.78 per barrel after Trump threatened to strike Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and seize Kharg Island, while Brent reached $93.51.
  • Equities rebounded 0.4%-0.7%: The S&P 500 gained 0.44%, the Dow rose 0.58%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.67%, staging a partial recovery from a sharp Wednesday decline despite escalating geopolitical risk.
  • Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $62,600: Bitcoin broke a three-session losing streak, trading as a partial risk-recovery asset alongside equities rather than as a pure geopolitical safe haven.
  • Dollar held near DXY 99.83: The U.S. Dollar Index held relatively steady, supported by hot CPI and PPI data that reinforced rate hike expectations, while falling slightly on Trump's most provocative comments.

Multi-asset sessions like Thursday's are among the most difficult to read in real time because the price signals from different asset classes appear to contradict each other. Oil rising alongside equities rising alongside a stable dollar alongside a recovering cryptocurrency is not an incoherent outcome, but understanding it requires separating the different drivers at work in each market.

In crude oil, the primary driver was geopolitical: Trump's threats to strike Iran again and seize Kharg Island ratcheted up the conflict premium embedded in oil prices. WTI front-month futures rose to $90.78 per barrel. Iran's subsequent declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was completely closed to commercial shipping added further upward pressure. These developments are unambiguously supply-disruptive and oil-bullish.

In equities, the driver was a combination of earnings recovery, specifically semiconductor and chip stocks rallying after upside target revisions, and a relief trade as U.S. Central Command announced it had completed its latest round of strikes on Iran, temporarily removing the uncertainty of imminent action. The S&P 500 gaining 0.44% while crude oil surges is consistent with a market that has already priced in a prolonged conflict and is reacting to the absence of further immediate escalation, not to its resolution.

In Bitcoin, the session illustrated the asset's dual identity: it rose alongside equities in a risk-recovery trade while also drawing some positioning from investors using it as a geopolitical hedge outside the traditional dollar-gold framework. Bitcoin's 1.9% rise was broadly consistent with the equity rebound rather than an independent safe-haven move.

The dollar's relative stability, holding near 99.83 on the ICE index, reflects the equilibrium between two forces: rate hike expectations from hot inflation data supporting the dollar, and risk-off safe-haven demand partially counteracting the geopolitical premium.