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Highlights

  • Dow Jones futures slide 0.43% as new tariffs revive trade fears.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures extend losses in early trade.
  • US-Iran tensions lift risk aversion across global markets.
  • Core PCE inflation at 3.0% clouds the Fed’s policy path.
  • Nvidia earnings emerge as the key market catalyst.

US equity futures started the week in the red as a fresh tariff move and escalating geopolitical tensions dented investor confidence. The risk-off tone follows a brief relief rally on Wall Street and comes at a crucial time when markets are looking to technology earnings — particularly Nvidia — for the next directional trigger.

Tariff Move Triggers Early Weakness

Dow Jones futures fell 0.43% to around 49,450 during European trading, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.58% and 0.74% to hover near 6,880 and 24,880, respectively. Sentiment weakened after US President Donald Trump announced an immediate temporary 15% global tariff, reviving trade uncertainty despite the Supreme Court’s recent decision to block earlier emergency duties.

At the same time, rising tensions between the US and Iran added to caution. Reports suggested Washington had considered limited airstrikes to pressure Tehran in nuclear negotiations, with the possibility of broader military action if diplomacy fails — a development that pushed investors toward safer positioning.

Friday’s Rally Fades into Caution

The weak futures performance contrasts with Friday’s strong close, when Wall Street advanced after the tariff ruling. The Dow Jones gained 0.47%, the S&P 500 rose 0.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.9%, led by technology stocks.

However, macroeconomic data continues to send mixed signals. The US economy expanded at an annualised 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, while core PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.0% year-on-year in December. Persistent price pressures alongside moderate growth have complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and kept market participants cautious.

Nvidia Earnings Take Centre Stage

With the earnings season nearing its close, Nvidia’s results are expected to play a decisive role in shaping near-term market direction, particularly for the technology sector that has been driving recent gains.

Dow Jones: A Snapshot

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks 30 major US companies and is price-weighted. Its movement is influenced by corporate earnings, macroeconomic trends, interest rates and inflation. Investors typically access the index through ETFs, futures, options and mutual funds.

FAQs

  1. Why did US futures fall at the start of the week?
    A new global tariff announcement and escalating US-Iran tensions weakened investor sentiment.
  2. What is the key macro factor for the Federal Reserve?
    Persistent core PCE inflation despite moderate growth is complicating policy decisions.
  3. Why is Nvidia’s earnings report important?
    It is expected to influence the direction of technology stocks and the broader market.