Key Highlights

● Intel forecast fourth-quarter Revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion against about $17 billion expected.

● Reddit guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.00 billion to $1.03 billion versus $1.05 billion expected.

● Intel closed the regular session at $92.07 before plunging after hours.

● ServiceNow, Fortinet and Roblox also fell on guidance despite beating estimates.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Reddit (NYSE:RDDT) both topped expectations for the quarter just ended on Thursday, and both were hammered after hours for what they said about the quarter ahead.

Beating the past, missing the future

Earnings season has a recurring trap: a company clears the bar for the last three months, then trips over the next three. On Thursday evening, two very different companies fell into it.

Intel, the chip pioneer, and Reddit, the social platform, share little beyond a listing on a US exchange. Yet both delivered quarters that beat forecasts, both issued fourth-quarter guidance below Wall Street's estimates, and both saw their shares tumble in extended trading.

Intel: strong quarter, weak outlook

Intel's third quarter looked solid. Revenue reached $16.51 billion, and adjusted Earnings of $0.52 a share beat the $0.40 consensus, according to one source. Its Data Center and AI segment brought in $7.32 billion, growing rapidly from a year earlier.

The guidance told a different story. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, well below the roughly $17 billion analysts expected, and adjusted earnings of $0.25 a share against a $0.43 consensus. It also said it expects a PC slowdown through at least the first half of next year.

The stock, which closed the regular session at $92.07, plunged after hours. Reports on the size of the drop varied with timing: one source had it near $77.96, while another had it as low as about $71.63.

Reddit: growth that wasn't enough

Reddit's quarter was arguably even stronger. Revenue of $895 million topped the $874.9 million estimate and grew strongly from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of $1.40 a share beat the $1.33 forecast, according to media reports.

But the fourth-quarter revenue guide of $1.00 billion to $1.03 billion fell short of the $1.05 billion consensus. For a company priced on rapid growth, even a modest gap between guidance and expectations can matter a great deal. The shares slid sharply after hours.

Why guidance outweighs results

The pattern is not new, but Thursday made it vivid. Stock prices reflect expectations about the future, so a beat on past results is often already priced in. Guidance resets those expectations, and when it comes in low, the market adjusts quickly.

The theme extended beyond Intel and Reddit. ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) fell sharply on Thursday after guiding to slower growth in a key subscription Backlog measure, despite beating revenue estimates. Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) slid after cutting its service revenue forecast, even as it beat headline estimates. Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) also tumbled after hours on a fourth-quarter revenue guide below consensus.

The bigger market picture

The regular session was already tense. The Nasdaq Composite fell 365.13 points to 26,184.72 and the S&P 500 slipped 23.59 points to 7,720.39, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) suffering its worst day since its 2004 IPO. The semiconductor index ended a four-day winning streak.

Yet the broader market showed resilience. More than 400 S&P 500 members rose and the Russell 2000 gained 28.71 points to 2,859.22. Investors seemed eager to buy companies with improving outlooks and to sell those that signaled a slowdown, regardless of the quarter just reported.

After the bell, Nasdaq-100 futures slid as Intel and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) fell, according to market data.

What to watch

For Intel, the focus turns to the PC slowdown it expects through the first half of next year and whether strength in its data center Business can offset it. Analysts' revised estimates will show how much damage the guidance does to longer-term forecasts.

For Reddit, the question is whether the guidance reflects caution or a genuine slowdown. Its next report will show which. More broadly, with much of the S&P 500 still to report, Thursday's lesson is clear: in this market, the next quarter matters more than the last one.