Key Highlights

● IEEPA tariffs are gone, and $130 billion to $200 billion in refunds is pending.

● Section 232 tariffs still impose 50% on steel, aluminum and copper.

● Ingersoll Rand and Illumina are now separating Tariff refunds from underlying results.

● The broader market is barely reacting to tariffs on Oct. 30.

The Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has reshaped U.S. trade policy. However, the change is narrower than many investors assume. According to a tariff tracker updated Oct. 27, IEEPA tariffs are no longer in effect, and an estimated $130 billion to $200 billion in IEEPA refunds is pending.

The tracker also shows that the separate 10% global Surcharge under Section 122 expired on July 24. Many other duties remain. Section 232 tariffs still impose 50% on steel, aluminum and copper, 25% on certain advanced chips, 25% on trucks, and up to 100% on pharmaceuticals, with negotiated deal rates of 15%. A 15% Section 232 tariff on polysilicon starts Dec. 4, and increases on lumber and furniture are delayed to Jan. 1, 2027.

Refunds are already showing up in earnings

The refunds aren't just a policy footnote. They're starting to appear in quarterly results. Ingersoll Rand (NYSE:IR) reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.07, or $1.01 excluding IEEPA tariff refunds, and its updated full-year EPS guidance strips those refunds out. Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) said its Q3 Revenue of $1.13 billion would have been $1.17 billion excluding tariff refunds. It also reported adjusted EPS of $1.62, or $1.44 without them.

The pattern matters for investors reading this Earnings season. A refund can flatter one quarter's margins without changing the business's underlying trend. That's why companies are separating them out. An automated news note on FormFactor (NASDAQ:FORM), down 7.74% pre-market, cites "margin concerns tied to tariff refunds." Like all auto-generated notes, that explanation is unconfirmed.

Who benefits, and who does not

Importers that paid large IEEPA duties, such as retailers, industrial companies and medical-device makers, stand to gain the most once refunds clear. Sectors protected by Section 232 duties, including steel, aluminum and domestic solar manufacturing, keep their shields. First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) CEO Mark Widmar said on Thursday that "Section 232 represents a structural change in how the United States approaches solar manufacturing." First Solar also cut its 2026 sales forecast.

The broader market is barely reacting to tariffs today. S&P 500 futures were down about 1.1% early Friday, but the selling is driven by Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)'s and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)'s results and AI cash-burn concerns, not trade policy.

The timing and mechanics of refunds remain uncertain. The tracker gives a range rather than a firm figure, and the pace of payouts isn't specified. Refunds of $130 billion to $200 billion would also affect the federal deficit. With the 10-year Treasury Yield near 4.94% to 4.99%, a larger financing need could add pressure on long-term rates.

There's also policy risk. The administration still has other legal tools, including Section 232, Section 301 and Section 338, which already imposes 50% duties on selected Canadian goods. Changes to that Canadian list take effect today, Oct. 30. Plywood and refrigeration equipment come off the list, and certain valves, carpets and waste products are added.

What to watch

Watch for more companies breaking out refund gains in earnings releases next week. More than 100 S&P 500 companies report, including AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and McDonald's (NYSE:MCD). On trade, the China maritime Section 301 suspension ends Nov. 10, and the polysilicon tariff begins Dec. 4. The Nov. 3 midterm elections could also change how Congress approaches trade powers.

For today's session, tariffs are a background issue rather than the main driver. Investors looking for refund beneficiaries should check whether management teams treat the money as one-time income or as a source of Buybacks and investment, because that choice will shape how lasting any boost to earnings turns out to be.