Key Highlights

● ISM Manufacturing and services surveys arrive next week.

● The October jobs report is due on Friday, November 6, 2026.

● Markets price a rate hike at the December meeting.

● The data will support or weaken the hike case.

Wall Street closed out October with its worst session since June. On Friday, October 30, 2026, the S&P 500 fell 140.32 points to 7,580.07, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 572.25 points to 51,770.31 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 747.73 points to 25,437.00. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)'s cash-burn warning set off a global chip selloff, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)'s results added to worries about artificial-intelligence spending, and oil above $100 a barrel kept Inflation in focus.

Against that backdrop, the next stretch of economic data carries extra weight. Markets are pricing in a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting, according to CME FedWatch data cited by market data, and the coming reports will either support or challenge that bet.

Next week brings the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' indexes for manufacturing and services, national surveys that track orders, output, hiring and prices. They follow a regional reading that cooled: the Chicago PMI slid to 55.3 in October from 58.8, missing forecasts but staying in expansion territory.

The ISM reports will show whether that slowdown is local or part of a broader shift. Their price components will also be closely read, given that September's personal consumption expenditures data showed headline and Core Inflation at their highest levels since May.

The jobs report on November 6

The October employment report lands on Friday, November 6. It is likely to be the most important data point before the Fed meets. Weekly jobless claims have been low, at 194,000 in the latest count against a 202,000 forecast, but some strategists have questioned the pace of hiring. a portfolio manager described "the lack of Job growth" as the "missing piece," Market reports said.

Chair Kevin Warsh said after the October 27-28 meeting that "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the Unemployment rate has changed little." A strong report would reinforce the case for tightening; a weak one could complicate it.

A Fed that won't pre-commit

Warsh has been clear that he does not intend to signal the December outcome in advance. "I don't believe in forward guidance absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis," he said. He added, "I also don't believe in prejudging meetings. A lot of things can happen."

Other officials have been more direct. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said, "I judge that additional firming of Monetary Policy will be necessary, and soon." Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she wants at least two more quarter-point hikes, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said, "I think the question though is pace."

Elections and Earnings in between

The data does not arrive in isolation. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports results on Monday, November 2, and the midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House, while the Senate is more in doubt, according to market data. An Investment manager said of a Democratic sweep, "I think that will be seen as negative for both the AI names".

What to watch

The ISM surveys early in the week and the jobs report on November 6 are the two key releases to track before December. Investors will also watch Treasury yields, which fell sharply in October, and oil prices, which have stayed above $100 a barrel on tensions around Iran.

Together, those readings will shape how much room the Fed has. Warsh has said more information will guide the committee, and the coming days will supply plenty of it.