Key Highlights

● Brent crude rose $4.35 to $113.17 a barrel, its highest since May 4.

● WTI came close to $100 a barrel before settling just below it.

● Brent has climbed by more than half since the Iran war began in February.

● Treasuries rallied, and the yen and Swiss franc led major currencies.

Energy markets had plenty to digest on Thursday, October 22, but one report stood out. A media report said the US and Israeli militaries have plans to renew strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections.

The news landed as oil was already climbing. Brent crude rose $4.35 to $113.17 a barrel, its highest since May 4, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate came close to $100 during the session before settling just below it.

Why Iran matters to oil

Iran sits on the Persian Gulf beside the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping lanes for crude. Any conflict involving Iran raises the risk of disruption to production, tanker traffic or neighboring oil infrastructure.

That risk is not theoretical this year. Brent has climbed by more than half since the Iran war began in late February. The prospect of renewed strikes suggests the conflict may not be winding down, which helps explain why traders were willing to pay more for future supply.

The timing in the report also matters. By pointing to plans after the November 3 midterms, it gave markets a specific window to watch, extending the period over which a geopolitical premium may stay in prices.

A day of compounding risks

The Iran report did not arrive in isolation. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia hit Dammam airport and an Aramco oil field, and one report said four were killed. The State Department ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia.

Together, those developments pushed Brent sharply higher. It was below $97 at the start of October.

There were offsetting signals. A report said Middle East oil exports now exceed pre-war levels via routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That suggests producers have found ways around some of the bottlenecks, which may cap how far prices can run on supply fears alone.

Market reaction beyond oil

Energy stocks had a mixed day. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) closed essentially flat despite the price jump, and refiner Valero (NYSE:VLO) slipped even after posting a record quarterly profit. Coterra Energy (NYSE:CTRA) also fell.

Fuel-sensitive companies flagged the pain. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) cut its 2026 earnings forecast on fuel costs, and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) trimmed the high end of its guidance, citing energy costs.

The broader stock market was dominated by an artificial-intelligence selloff. The Nasdaq Composite fell 694 points to 26,008.86 and the S&P 500 dropped 93.74 points to 7,663.43, its worst day since July. Bitcoin slid toward $81,000, a move tied partly to oil above $111 and fading risk appetite.

Safe havens were mixed. Treasuries rallied, sending the 10-year yield back below a closely watched threshold for the first time since September 22, and the yen and Swiss franc led major currencies. Gold, however, slid to its lowest in more than two months.

Midterms and the Fed Frame Oil's Path

Energy traders will watch for any official comment from Washington or Jerusalem on the reported plans, and for further attacks in Saudi Arabia. The November 3 midterm elections now carry added significance for oil. Before then, the Federal Reserve announces its decision on October 28, and September PCE inflation, due October 29, will show how energy costs are feeding through to consumers. Friday's S&P Global PMIs offer an early read on business price pressures.