Key Highlights

  • Waste Connections (TSX:WCN) rose 8.1% to CAD 255.64 in the October 22, 2026 session, from a prior close near CAD 236.40, after third-quarter results published on October 21, 2026.
  • Third-quarter revenue was USD 2.638 billion against USD 2.458 billion a year earlier, adjusted EBITDA was USD 895.8 million and adjusted EPS was USD 1.58 against USD 1.44.
  • The company raised its 2026 outlook for the second time, to about USD 10.09 billion of revenue and about USD 3.345 billion of adjusted EBITDA.
  • The regular quarterly dividend rises 10%, its sixteenth consecutive increase, and year-to-date buybacks exceeded USD 1 billion, about 2.5% of shares. Those returns come on top of acquisitions.

What the Quarter Showed

The company reported on October 21, 2026 that third-quarter revenue grew to USD 2,638.1 million from USD 2,458.4 million, about 7.3%, simple arithmetic on two published numbers. Net income rose to USD 359.2 million, or USD 1.43 per diluted share, from USD 286.3 million, or USD 1.11. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.0%, up from 33.8%, and adjusted net income per diluted share was USD 1.58. Adjusted free cash flow was USD 386.9 million for the quarter and USD 1.090 billion for nine months. The company also closed acquisitions adding about USD 130 million of annualized revenue so far in 2026. Revenue growth of about 7.3% is the figure that underpins the margin story.

Guidance and Capital Returns

This was the second increase to the 2026 outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Updated figures are about USD 10.09 billion of revenue, about USD 3.345 billion of adjusted EBITDA, net income of about USD 1.18 billion, capital spending of about USD 1.25 billion and adjusted free cash flow of USD 1.40 billion to USD 1.45 billion. The release did not state the earlier outlook, so the size of the raise is not calculated here. The dividend increase of 10% follows a quarterly payment of USD 0.350 per share, and repurchases of more than USD 1 billion year to date retired about 2.5% of the shares outstanding.

Risks and What to Watch

A one day gain of 8.1% leaves less room for disappointment. Waste collection earns its margin from pricing and route density, so volume weakness, fuel and labor costs, recycled commodity prices and landfill regulation can all pressure profit. Acquisition led growth depends on finding deals at sensible prices, and large buybacks reduce flexibility if debt costs rise. The Canadian dollar quote also moves with the exchange rate, since the company reports in US dollars and also trades in New York. Watch for the new dividend rate, which the release did not state, fourth-quarter pricing commentary and further tuck-in acquisitions. Regulatory changes at landfills and rising insurance costs are further sector specific pressures to monitor.

Where Things Stand

The question is answered by results: Waste Connections (TSX:WCN) rose 8.1% after a third-quarter beat on adjusted EPS, a second guidance increase and a 10% dividend raise. The balance of evidence is positive on execution, with margins edging up and cash flow strong, but the valuation now reflects it, and the exact size of the guidance raise was not stated. The next markers are the new dividend rate and the fourth-quarter report, both without a confirmed date in the release.