Key Highlights

  • United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) followed West Texas Intermediate towards USD 100 on Thursday, October 22, 2026, as December WTI traded at USD 99.30, up USD 2.15, at 6:45 a.m. ET.
  • December Brent rose USD 3.09 to USD 111.91 at the same time, its highest level since Monday, May 18, 2026, with other quotes placing it above USD 112.
  • The move followed a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, a US order for some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia and press reports of US and Israeli strike plans for Iran.
  • Quotes varied through the night: an earlier reading put WTI at USD 98.52 and Brent at USD 110.63, so the measured gain depends on the time and contract used.

What Moved Crude Overnight

United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holds front-month WTI futures, so it reflects the US benchmark rather than physical barrels. On Thursday, October 22, 2026, December WTI traded at USD 99.30 at 6:45 a.m. ET, up USD 2.15, with some quotes briefly above USD 100. December Brent stood at USD 111.91, up USD 3.09, its highest since Monday, May 18, 2026. Three events drove the bid. A drone attack on Wednesday hit near a processing plant at Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field. Washington then ordered non-emergency staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia. Press reports also described US and Israeli plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms, which President Trump has not approved.

How the Gulf Premium Reaches WTI

Brent prices barrels exposed to Gulf and Red Sea shipping, while WTI prices crude delivered inland at Cushing, Oklahoma. That is why Brent carries most of the geopolitical premium, the extra price traders pay for possible supply loss. On the 6:45 a.m. ET quotes, Brent traded USD 12.61 above WTI, simple arithmetic on two published prices. United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) still captures part of the move, because US crude competes for export demand when Gulf barrels are scarce. Tight US stocks add a domestic channel: the EIA reported a crude draw of 3.06 million barrels on Wednesday, against an expected 0.82 million. The fund rolls monthly contracts, so its return can differ from the quoted spot move.

Risks and What to Watch

The first risk for United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) is a fast reversal. On Tuesday, October 20, Brent touched a five-month high near USD 112 and then fell back on talk of diplomacy, which shows how quickly the premium can drain. The second risk is escalation, since reported Iranian retaliation threats include Saudi refineries. A third factor is policy: the Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. A stronger dollar can also weigh on crude. Investors should watch weekly EIA inventory data on Wednesday, October 28, the Fed decision the same day and the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that WTI is back near USD 100 because Gulf supply risk rose on three fronts in one session, and United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) follows that benchmark directly. The measured gain depends on the quote used, between USD 98.52 and about USD 100 for WTI. The next catalysts are EIA stocks data and the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28, followed by the midterms on Tuesday, November 3. Oil prices are highly volatile, and this is not investment advice.