Key Highlights

● The EIA releases weekly crude inventory data at 12:00 p.m. ET.

● The release is a day later than usual after the Veterans Day holiday.

● Analysts expect a draw of about 600,000 barrels.

● The data could move energy shares.

Oil traders have a noon deadline Thursday. The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release weekly US crude inventory data at 12:00 p.m. ET, a day later than usual after the Veterans Day holiday. Analysts expect a draw of about 600,000 barrels.

A modest consensus number can still move energy shares when crude is trading near $86 a barrel and geopolitics is shifting by the hour. Energy was the second-best S&P 500 sector on Wednesday, up 1.86%, behind only technology.

Where oil stands

West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $85.80 to $86.10 early Thursday, down about 0.5% to 0.9%, while Brent was near $92.30. The pullback reflects hopes for progress in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, where a large prisoner exchange has been agreed.

The risk picture is still tense. Iran has said the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and its Supreme National Security Council secretary warned against removing enriched nuclear material. Disputes over a US naval blockade continue. Reports said that Vice President JD Vance is considering direct talks with a senior Iranian security official. Allianz Trade estimates damage from the Iran conflict across Gulf nations at more than $200 billion.

How the report could feed through

The weekly EIA data covers commercial crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization and implied demand. A draw well beyond the 600,000-barrel estimate would point to tighter domestic Supply and could support crude prices and producer shares. A surprise build could add to Thursday's softness.

Refiners react differently from producers. Large gasoline or distillate draws can signal firm Demand for fuel and support refining margins. A drop in utilization might hint at maintenance or outages. Integrated majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the largest energy weights in the S&P 500, tend to track crude more closely.

The read-through goes beyond the energy sector. Higher fuel costs feed into Inflation expectations, and markets are already pricing about 90% odds of a December Fed rate hike after a hot October CPI. Airlines and transport stocks are sensitive to fuel too, which is one reason United CEO Scott Kirby's appearance at Yahoo Finance's Invest event Thursday will draw attention.

What to Watch Next on EIA Crude Inventory Report

Weekly inventory reports are noisy, and the market often fades a surprise within hours. Swings in imports and exports can move the headline number by millions of barrels without changing the underlying balance. With the Strait of Hormuz finished and diplomatic headlines flowing, news on Iran or Russia-Ukraine is likely to matter more than one week of US storage data.

Energy shares also face a tug from the broader tape. Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 0.6% early Thursday, on unconfirmed reports about Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s leadership. Energy can serve as a relative haven in those conditions, but sector-wide selling can overwhelm that.

Watch the noon EIA release, then crude's reaction into the afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. ET the Treasury holds a 30-year bond auction, and at 2:00 p.m. it releases the federal budget statement, both of which can move the dollar and, through it, oil. Any confirmed progress in US-Iran talks would likely outweigh the inventory figure.