Key Highlights

● Ferguson closed at $219.83 on 9 October 2026.

● Market data consensus target is $283.07, implying about 28.8% upside.

● The second data set shows a mean of $287.48 and a median of $290.

● Royal Bank of Canada lowered its target from $290 to $286 on 7 October.

Ferguson (NYSE:FERG), a distributor of plumbing, heating and building products and a member of the S&P 500, closed at $219.83 on Friday 9 October 2026. Published price targets sit a long way above the current share price.

What Is the Latest Analyst Price Target?

Market data reports a consensus price target of $283.07 based on 19 ratings in the last twelve months, with a high of $325.00 and a low of $245.00. Against the $219.83 close, that suggests potential upside of about 28.8%. The second data set, which uses third-party data for 22 analysts, shows a slightly higher mean of $287.48, a median of $290, a high of $325 and a low of $235.

The two means are within about $4.50 of each other and both are consistent with recent named broker targets, which range from $252 to $325 and average a little under $285.

What Are Wall Street Analysts Saying?

Market data shows 12 Buy ratings (including two Strong Buy), seven Hold ratings and no Sell ratings, a Moderate Buy consensus. The second data set shows 11 Strong Buy, three Buy and eight Hold ratings for September 2026, also with no Sell ratings.

Recent named broker actions on market data include Royal Bank of Canada lowering its target from $290 to $286 on 7 October 2026 with an Outperform rating, and Melius Research initiating coverage with a Hold rating and a $252 target on 6 October. On 11 August, Bernstein raised its target from $310 to $325, Barclays from $297 to $313, Wells Fargo from $285 to $295, Oppenheimer from $280 to $288, Robert W. Baird from $285 to $288 and UBS from $252 to $256. Goldman Sachs downgraded the shares from Buy to Neutral on 6 July, cutting its target from $315 to $265.

What Could Help the Stock Reach the Price Target?

The cluster of target increases in mid-August suggests that several brokers became more positive after the company's latest update, although the cause is not stated. Analysts rating the shares Outperform or Overweight may be expecting recovery in housing-related and construction demand, and a stronger market could help the shares close the gap to the consensus.

What Could Prevent the Stock Reaching the Target?

The distance between the price and the consensus target is itself a warning: the market is valuing the shares well below what the average analyst suggests. Goldman Sachs' downgrade shows that some brokers are cautious, and seven analysts have Hold ratings. Building products distribution tends to follow housing and construction cycles, and softer activity or margin pressure could weigh on results. Recent target reductions, such as the Royal Bank of Canada cut in October, may signal that estimates are drifting lower.

What Should Investors Watch Next?

Investors may also watch whether recent target reductions, such as the Royal Bank of Canada cut, spread to other brokers.

Ferguson's Housing-Cycle Discount to Consensus

Ferguson closed at $219.83 on 9 October 2026, below the market data consensus of $283.07 and the second data set's $287.48. Goldman Sachs downgraded the shares from Buy to Neutral on 6 July, cutting its target from $315 to $265.