Key Highlights

● November lumber was quoted at $526.50 per thousand board feet on October 2, 2026, down $4.00, or 0.75%, from $530.50.

● Market commentary links weakness to Mortgage rates of 7.3%, described as the highest in three years, which weigh on housing.

● Weyerhaeuser reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $310 million, with lumber realizations up 15% from the first quarter.

● West Fraser cut its second-quarter net loss to $61 million from $188 million and kept its 2026 shipment target unchanged.

CME lumber futures for November 2026 delivery were quoted at $526.50 per thousand board feet for the close on Friday, October 2, 2026, down $4.00, or 0.75%, from $530.50. Higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing demand. Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY), which owns timberlands and makes wood products, reported a firmer second quarter, though its results predate the latest slide in futures.

A Quote in the Lower Half of the Annual Range

The 52-week range runs from $496 to $664, so the latest price sits in the lower half. Market commentary also cites declines of 8.28% over a month and 14.46% over a year. The monthly figure may include a step between contracts, because the September contract has expired and November is now the active month, with delivery on November 13. The daily change above compares November with November.

Units matter. The quote is in US dollars per thousand board feet, and one contract covers 27,500 board feet, about $14,479 of lumber at $526.50. The minimum price move is $0.50, or $13.75 per contract. The quote comes from delayed market data, not an exchange settlement notice, so it should be matched to CME data for contractual use.

Futures trade in January, March, May, July, September and November, with the last trading day on the Business day before the 16th of the contract month. The current contract, symbol LBR, is physically deliverable to the Chicago Switching District and began trading on August 8, 2022, replacing the older Random Length Lumber contract. CME set a fixed-ratio spread between the two to ease rolling, and the old contract was Delisted after a sunset period, so pre-2022 history needs a carefully spliced series.

Mortgage Costs Weigh While Tariffs Cloud Supply

Market commentary attributes the weakness to housing, citing mortgage rates of 7.3%, the highest in three years. Higher borrowing costs plausibly cut new construction and renovation spending, though that link is an inference, not a measured cause of this week’s price.

Trade policy is the other major variable. Market commentary notes that Canada has imposed 25% counter-tariffs on US lumber and 50% on plywood in response to American tariffs, which could limit Supply competition. West Fraser’s second-quarter report refers to new Section 338 tariffs affecting about 3% of its US plywood shipments and 20% of its US laminated veneer lumber shipments, based on year-to-date volumes. Tariffs cut both ways, since they can lift US prices by limiting imports but also raise builder costs and dampen demand.

Weyerhaeuser and West Fraser Show Different Recoveries

Sawmills with their own timber usually gain most when prices rise, while those buying logs on the open market can see margins squeezed. Many producers also sell Southern yellow pine or Canadian spruce-pine-fir, which does not track the CME contract exactly.

Weyerhaeuser reported on July 30 second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $310 million and said lumber realizations rose 15% from the first quarter. Wood Products contributed $71 million of pretax earnings, up from $14 million. It guided third-quarter Earnings about $30 million lower than the second quarter, citing the timing of real estate sales.

West Fraser (NYSE:WFG), which operates in Canada and the southern United States, reported on July 29 a second-quarter net loss of $61 million on sales of $1.434 billion, narrower than the first quarter’s $188 million loss. Lumber adjusted EBITDA was $41 million, including a $13 million favorable duties adjustment. It kept its 2026 SPF and SYP shipment target at 2.4 billion to 2.7 billion board feet, wound down its High Level OSB mill and more than doubled output at its Henderson, Texas sawmill from the first quarter. Currency, duties and regional prices all affect its results.

Housing Data and the January Roll to Track

Prices could firm if mortgage rates ease and housing activity recovers, if mills curtail output in response to weak margins, or if tariffs and duties tighten Import supply. They could weaken if borrowing costs stay high, if housing starts disappoint, or if added Southern US capacity outpaces demand. West Fraser’s ramp-up in Texas is one example of capacity being added in the US South.

A lower futures price is cost relief for builders and a Margin concern for sawmills, while a recovery would reverse those effects. US housing starts and building permits, mortgage-rate data and any change to US or Canadian Tariff and duty rulings will probably matter most. Third-quarter reports from Weyerhaeuser and West Fraser should show whether the second-quarter recovery in realizations held. The November contract’s last trading day is November 13, 2026, after which January becomes the front month and another roll arrives.