Key Highlights

● Iron ore was steady at $90.71 a tonne in Thursday's session, up 0.01%.

● The price is down 6.09% on the month and 15.33% since January.

● Chinese port stocks are near 173 million tonnes, with blast furnaces at about 80%.

● Shipments from the four biggest miners could rise by up to 18 million tonnes.

Iron ore was steady at US$90.71 per tonne in Thursday's session on 29 October, up 0.01%, leaving the steelmaking raw material close to its lowest levels in two years. The flat reading hides a market under pressure: prices are 6.09% lower on the month, with Chinese demand entering a seasonally weaker stretch just as supply grows.

The US dollar price tracks 62% iron content fines delivered to China. The yuan-denominated contract rose 1.49% to 682.00 yuan a tonne, though it remains 2.92% lower on the month. The two quotes use different contracts and currencies and are not interchangeable. In dollars, iron ore is down 15.33% since the start of the year and 14.21% from a year ago. Earlier this week, Singapore futures touched US$89.25, the lowest since September 2024.

Soft Demand Meets Rising Supply

The market has two problems at the same time. China, which buys most of the world's seaborne ore, is moving into the weakest months of the year for steel demand, and the largest producers are preparing to ship more. When both happen together, prices have little room to rise.

China's Seasonal Slowdown

Chinese steel consumption is entering a seasonally weaker period, and the final two months of the year are historically the softest for steel demand. Higher oil prices have added to worries about the global outlook. Steel mills are buying mostly as needed rather than building stocks, because port inventories remain high at around 173 million tonnes and blast furnace utilisation sits near 80%.

Steel prices were soft too. Hot-rolled coil steel fell 0.07% to US$1,391 a tonne, and Chinese steel slipped 0.65% to 3,051 yuan a tonne.

More Ore on the Way

Shipments from the four biggest miners could rise by as much as 18 million tonnes in the fourth quarter. Production is also ramping up at Guinea's Simandou mine, which produced 2.5 million tonnes in the third quarter. The operator said the mine was about 84% complete and on track for 60 million tonnes a year in the second half of 2028, so the longer-term supply addition is large compared with today's quarterly volumes.

Some forecasts see prices slipping towards US$85 to US$86 a tonne through November.

The Chinese Buyer Dispute

China Mineral Resources Group, the state-backed buyer, has settled its negotiations with major producers, including the largest Pilbara miner, while another large Australian producer is still in talks. The unfinished dispute has had a visible effect on volumes: that producer's September-quarter shipments were 46.8 million tonnes, down 6% from a year earlier, while sales were 42.9 million tonnes. Its realised hematite price was US$80 per dry tonne, 82% of the average index price, showing how product quality and timing can separate a miner's price from the headline benchmark.

For the largest producer, third-quarter global sales were 90.8 million tonnes and Pilbara shipments 85.7 million tonnes, with 2026 sales guidance of 343 to 366 million tonnes unchanged.

Iron Ore Watch: Port Stocks, Simandou and Steel Margins

Weekly Chinese port inventory figures and blast furnace operating rates are the indicators to follow. Progress in the remaining producer talks with the state-backed buyer will show whether sales volumes catch up with shipments, and further Simandou shipment data will show how quickly new supply reaches China.

Prices could find support if Chinese steel output picks up, if steel margins stabilise, if port stocks fall or if new supply slips. They could fall further if fourth-quarter shipments surge, if Simandou ramps faster than planned or if steel prices weaken again. Policy measures aimed at Chinese construction or steel output cuts could push the market either way.