Key Highlights

• Three-Month Low for Lithium Prices: Lithium carbonate prices in China fell to CNY 151,750 per tonne, the lowest level in three months, on restart speculation.

• Restart Speculation Unconfirmed: A government notice on a preliminary land assessment fueled restart expectations, though no formal reopening plans have been confirmed.

• Tight Supply-Demand Backdrop Expected: Despite restart speculation, analysts still expect relatively tight lithium markets as new battery capacity comes online in Q3.

Lithium carbonate prices in China dropped to CNY 151,750 per tonne, the lowest level in three months, following speculation that one of the world's largest lithium mines could resume operations soon, sending a ripple of uncertainty through battery metal markets.

Contemporary Amperex Technology's (CATL) Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi province was suspended last year due to permitting issues, but a recent government notice regarding a preliminary land assessment has fueled expectations that the site could restart in the second half of 2026.

However, the notice did not confirm any reopening plans and appears to be a procedural step related to land-use approval, raising questions about whether the market's reaction has gotten ahead of the actual underlying development.

Analysts said the market has already priced in the possibility of a near-term restart, despite limited confirmation, suggesting that any official confirmation or denial of restart plans could trigger further price volatility in either direction.

They warned that a potential return of Jianxiawo output could weigh on prices, but still expect lithium supply and demand conditions to remain relatively tight as significant new battery capacity is scheduled to come online in the third quarter, which could help absorb any additional supply.

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