Key Highlights

● Palladium closed at $1,186.50 per troy ounce on October 1, 2026, down 2.67% to its lowest level in three months.

● Elevated oil prices lifted bets on higher-for-longer interest rates and weakened Investment flows into a metal that pays no yield.

● Palladium is down about 12.8% over the past month and sits far below its March 2022 all-time high of $3,440.76.

● Sibanye-Stillwater’s Montana operations produced 137,930 ounces of platinum and palladium in the first half, down 2% year on year.

Palladium closed at $1,186.50 per troy ounce on Thursday, October 1, 2026, down $32.50, or 2.67%, to its lowest level in three months. An early-morning spot quote showed $1,211.06 the same day. Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW), the South African miner with palladium operations in Montana, is the main US-listed Equity exposure.

A Three-Month Low Short of a Collapse

Palladium is down about 12.8% over the past month and roughly 4.8% over twelve months. Its all-time high remains $3,440.76 from March 2022, so the metal is far below its peak. A 52-week range of $1,156.00 to $2,172.50 places current spot near the bottom of the past year.

Prices are quoted in US dollars per troy ounce, which is about 31.1 grams, and spot quotes differ from futures. A three-month low marks the weakest price in three months, not a collapse, and the monthly decline reflects a fall from higher levels.

Oil, Rates and a Looming Surplus

The latest move reflects elevated oil prices, which lifted bets on higher-for-longer interest rates and weakened near-term investment flows into a metal that pays no yield.

The structural picture is also softer. The industry’s 2026 platinum group metals market report, published in May, said palladium could move into a small surplus this year after persistent deficits between 2012 and 2025. It forecast Demand falling by 9%, with negative exchange-traded fund investment in the first quarter and weaker automotive consumption linked to lower gasoline-vehicle production. Primary Supply should fall sharply as Russian mine output drops to its lowest for at least two decades, while recycling should rebound as high prices accelerate catalyst scrap processing.

Some forecasters expect an eventual surplus because declining automotive demand should outpace lower output from South Africa and Russia, where high operating costs, power instability and trade restrictions weigh on supply.

Sibanye-Stillwater and the PGM Producers

Palladium is largely a by-product or co-product of platinum group metal mining, so company results rarely isolate it. Sibanye-Stillwater is the only company in this review with US palladium mining. Its Montana operations produced 137,930 ounces of platinum and palladium combined (2E) in the first half of 2026, down 2% year on year. All-In Sustaining Cost was $1,347 per 2E ounce, including a $181 per ounce tax credit. The company is headquartered in South Africa, so its US exposure comes through operations and its New York listing.

Impala Platinum, known as Implats, owns Impala Canada. Its fiscal 2026 release of September 3 reported headline Earnings up thirty-one-fold to R22.9 billion and said Impala Canada’s production rates were tapered in line with plan. Implats reports in combined six-element ounces, so palladium cannot be isolated.

Valterra Platinum reported in its half-year announcement of July 29 a realized basket price up 85% to $2,801 per PGM ounce, led by platinum, rhodium and ruthenium. Palladium was not separately disclosed, a reminder that the basket, not palladium alone, drives earnings at several producers.

What Could Lift Palladium From Here

Palladium could recover if oil prices ease and rate expectations soften, if South African power problems curb output, or if trade restrictions tighten Russian flows. Downside risks include further falls in gasoline-vehicle output, higher recycling volumes and renewed outflows from investment products. The surplus call suggests the balance of risks is not obviously tilted toward supply shortages.

For producers, a lower palladium price matters most where it is the main Revenue line. Sibanye-Stillwater’s US operations are the clearest example among the companies above, although its group earnings also depend on South African platinum and gold.

The items to watch are the next daily settlement for the CME palladium contract, oil prices and central-bank rate signals, exchange-traded fund holdings, South African power supply and any change in trade restrictions on Russian metal. The next Sibanye-Stillwater and Implats trading updates should show whether cost pressure is rising as prices fall.