Key Highlights

  • COMEX December gold futures were quoted at US$4,215.00 per troy ounce in a delayed quote retrieved on September 30, 2026.
  • Spot gold was US$4,179.26 on September 30, about 6% lower over the month, following a 1.42% rebound on September 29.
  • The US 30-year Treasury Yield reached 5.62%, the highest since June 2002, while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.24%.
  • Newmont and Agnico Eagle reported second-quarter realized prices of US$4,414 and US$4,483 an ounce, above current spot levels.

COMEX December gold futures (GC) were quoted at US$4,215.00 per troy ounce in a delayed quote retrieved on September 30, 2026. Spot gold was lower: a bullion market report put it at US$4,172.40 after a 1.42% rebound on September 29, and market data showed US$4,179.26 on September 30, about 6% lower over the month. Among listed producers, Newmont (NYSE:NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) have reported second-quarter realized prices above US$4,400 an ounce.

The market picture

Over the past week, gold has been driven by interest rates rather than by safe-haven demand. Gold pays no income, so when government bond yields rise, holding it becomes less attractive relative to bonds. On September 28 a market report said spot gold fell 3.71% to US$4,127, its lowest since August 4, as the US 10-year yield climbed to 5.24% and the dollar strengthened.

Market data said the 30-year US yield reached 5.62%, the highest since June 2002. It also quoted New York Fed President John Williams as saying another rate increase late this year could be appropriate. Oil-related Inflation worries added to the pressure, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook cited as saying higher oil prices would create continued pressure on inflation.

Why gold rebounded on September 29

A bullion market report linked the bounce to softer US data. August Job Openings fell to 7.079 million from 7.335 million, and consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, its lowest since 2014. Williams was also reported as saying there was no need for urgency on rate rises. Odds of an October Fed increase fell from 70.9% to 51.5%, according to the same report.

The same metal fell when rate-hike bets rose and recovered when they eased. Market data also noted that lower oil prices offered some support on September 30, as energy flows from the Middle East improved.

Silver and the wider metals picture

Silver moved more sharply than gold. The market report said silver fell 5.41% to US$60.81 on September 28, also its lowest since August 4, while the bullion report showed it recovering 1.23% to US$61.27 the next day. Silver has a larger industrial component, so it often swings more when investors reassess growth and rates together. The same rate pressure appears to have reached palladium, which market data showed near a three-month low on September 29.

Futures versus spot

The gap between the futures quote and the Spot Price is worth understanding. Futures for later delivery normally trade above spot when interest rates are positive, because of the cost of carrying the metal. A gap of roughly US$36 to US$43 on these quotes is therefore not surprising, though the quotes were captured at different times.

Listed companies and their exposure

Newmont is the largest listed gold producer in this group and is also listed on the ASX. Its second-quarter 2026 results reported about 1.3 million attributable ounces, an All-In Sustaining Cost of US$1,621 per ounce and an average realized price of US$4,414. It kept full-year guidance of 5.3 million ounces. As a producer, its margins widen when gold rises and narrow when it falls.

Agnico Eagle Mines, which is also listed in Toronto, reported second-quarter payable gold of 855,816 ounces, an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,459 and a realized price of US$4,483. It has hedged about 60% of its remaining 2026 Canadian dollar exposure, which limits currency risk on costs. A rock movement at Canadian Malartic's Barnat pit is expected to trim full-year output by 60,000 to 80,000 ounces.

Northern Star Resources, listed on the ASX, reported full-year 2026 results with 1.54 million ounces sold at a realized price of A$4,925 and an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,698. Its guidance for the 2027 financial year is an all-in sustaining cost of A$3,050 to A$3,450 per ounce, which shows that rising costs can offset part of a higher gold price. Its Revenue is in Australian dollars, so currency matters.

Newmont and Agnico Eagle reported realized prices above US$4,400 for the second quarter, while spot gold on September 30 was below US$4,200. If prices stay near current levels, third-quarter and later realized prices would be lower than those reported, although hedges, timing of sales and costs would also matter. All three companies are producers, not Royalty or streaming businesses or developers.

What could strengthen the outlook

Gold could find support if inflation data or employment figures soften and hike expectations ease again, as they did on September 29. A weaker dollar or falling long-term yields would also reduce the Opportunity cost of holding it. Market data shows gold is still about 8% higher than a year ago, so the longer-term trend has not reversed.

What could weaken it

Gold could come under renewed pressure if inflation runs hot, oil rises again or Fed officials signal that further increases are likely. A stronger dollar would add to the strain. Because the month-end fall was driven by yields, further gains in bond yields could extend it. Markets can move quickly around data releases, particularly at quarter-end, when fund Rebalancing can add to daily swings.

Data Calendar and Yield Watch for Gold This Week

The next US releases arrive over the coming three days.

  • August Personal Income and PCE inflation: September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • ISM manufacturing: October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • September employment report: October 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Long-dated Treasury yields, oil and the dollar.
  • Further Fed speeches and any change in the odds of an October rate increase.

The December contract is currently the active month, and traders will need to allow for contract rolls when comparing charts.