Key Highlights

  • Silver traded at about US$61.13 per troy ounce on September 30, 2026, down 0.53% on the day.
  • One COMEX silver contract covers 5,000 troy ounces, a notional value of roughly US$305,650 at that price.
  • Silver is about 29% higher than a year ago but roughly half below its January 2026 peak of US$121.64.
  • Silver fell more than gold on September 28, with one report citing a 5.41% drop to US$60.81.

Silver traded at about US$61.13 per troy ounce on September 30, 2026, down 0.53% on the day, according to market data. The main development is a rates story: rising Treasury yields, firmer oil and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate rise have pushed silver lower over the past week. Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS) and Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM) are the listed names with the clearest silver exposure.

The price and the contract

The quote is per ounce. A COMEX silver Futures Contract (symbol SI) covers 5,000 troy ounces, so at US$61.13 one contract has a notional value of roughly US$305,650. That is the size of the position, not the price, and it is easy to confuse the two. Market data tracks a continuous futures-style series, so a roll between delivery months can nudge the figure.

Different sources showed slightly different levels for September 28. One source reported silver at US$61.53 after a 4.31% fall, while another cited US$60.81 after a 5.41% fall. The gap most likely reflects different timestamps or spot versus futures references, and neither is a COMEX official settlement.

Why silver has weakened

Market data attributes the pressure to elevated Treasury yields, noting a 30-year yield of 5.62%, and to a hawkish Federal Reserve. Silver pays no interest, so higher yields raise the Opportunity cost of holding it. A market report said the US 10-year real yield rose to 2.90% from 2.83% and that the dollar index gained 0.22%.

A bullion market report linked the September 28 sell-off to oil. It reported that Brent Crude approached US$106 a barrel after President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the probability of an October Fed rate rise to 70.3%, according to CME FedWatch. Market data added that falling oil prices on September 30 helped silver steady above US$61.

Bullion commentary offers an interpretation: that silver in 2026 follows long-term rates and oil more than fiscal deficits. It put silver at US$65.38 on September 22, so the price has fallen about 6% since, and market data shows a monthly decline of 8.11%.

Industrial Demand and the longer view

Silver is both a monetary and an industrial metal. A market report suggested that weak Chinese industrial profit growth added to worries about Manufacturing demand, which may explain why silver fell more than gold on September 28.

Market data shows silver about 29% higher than a year ago yet roughly half below its January 2026 peak of US$121.64. Bullion commentary gives a similar peak of US$121.58, the small difference reflecting data sources. Such a wide range shows how volatile the market has been.

Listed companies and their exposure

Silver equities differ by Business model. Fresnillo is a Mexico-based primary silver and gold miner, and a market report said its first-half 2026 profit rose on the precious metals rally. It is a producer with direct price sensitivity.

Pan American Silver is a multi-mine producer in the Americas that reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 11. Its Earnings depend on silver and gold prices, local costs and currencies.

Wheaton Precious Metals is a streaming and Royalty company rather than a miner, buying a share of production at fixed low prices. That model limits cost exposure but still ties Revenue to metal prices. Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) is a US-based silver producer, also with direct exposure.

Investor demand, currency and hedging

Silver also trades as an Investment asset, and that adds a second layer of sensitivity. Because the metal is priced in dollars, holders in other currencies see a different return when the dollar moves. A market report noted that Mexico and Peru, the largest silver producers by its account, face pressure on export revenue when prices fall, a regional observation rather than a company fact.

For producers, the impact of a price fall depends on hedging and by-product credits. Many silver mines also produce gold, zinc or lead, so a fall in silver can be partly cushioned if other metals hold up. Companies differ on whether they hedge. Streaming and royalty companies avoid most operating cost Inflation but remain exposed to the metals they are paid in.

Diversification matters as well. A company earning most revenue from gold will respond to the gold price more than to silver, and the gold-silver ratio of about 67 cited in bullion commentary shows how the two metals can move differently in the same week.

What could strengthen or weaken the outlook

Conditionally, easing oil prices, lower Treasury yields or a softer dollar could support silver, while further rate-hike expectations, a stronger dollar or weaker industrial data could weigh on it. One commentary argued that the recent move is a paper-market repricing rather than a sign of weak physical demand, which is an opinion.

Fed Odds, Yields and Oil: What to Watch Next for Silver

The next Federal Reserve decision, with October hike odds tracked through CME FedWatch, is the key event. Watch the 30-year Treasury yield, Brent crude and the dollar index, plus further Chinese industrial data. A bullion market report noted that Treasury buyback operations run until early November.