Geopolitics: Iran Drones Hit Kuwait Airport, Killing One; Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Renewed; House Passes War Powers 215-208

Iranian drones heavily damaged a passenger terminal at Kuwait International Airport Wednesday, killing one person and wounding at least 60 others. Iran denied causing the damage. CENTCOM called its own strikes on Iranian positions "self-defence." Trump said: "I'd say that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner." Iran stopped communicating with mediators, wanting Lebanon ceasefire enforced before returning to talks.

On the constructive side, Israel and Lebanon agreed Wednesday to renew their ceasefire and create "pilot" security zones where Hezbollah would be banned. The Republican-led House passed a war powers resolution 215-208, with four Republicans crossing over, directing Trump to withdraw U.S. troops from Iran unless Congress authorizes force. The vote is largely symbolic as the Senate must also act.

  • The 60-day MOU negotiated by both sides still awaits Trump's signature; Iran has stopped communicating with mediators for several days, and the war is now in its fourth month with no signed agreement in sight.
  • Wall Street is growing increasingly skeptical that the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened anytime soon; the Kuwait airport strike reinforces the risks to Gulf countries that had considered themselves relative havens.
  • Risk note: oil at $95.34 is pulling back on the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire news; any breakdown of that agreement would reverse the decline immediately.
  1. Earnings: Broadcom -12% on Software Miss; CrowdStrike -11% on Billings Shortfall; CRWD Announces 4-for-1 Split

Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO) reported Q2 Revenue of $22.187 billion, up 48% year over year, missing the $22.716 billion consensus by 2.3%. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.44 beat estimates. AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8 billion, up 143% year over year, a record. Infrastructure software revenue of $7.18 billion missed the $7.32 billion estimate. Q3 guidance of $29.4 billion with AI chip revenue expected to exceed $16 billion failed to deliver the Blowout investors anticipated. Broadcom disclosed a $300 billion-plus AI semiconductor Backlog and a deal to Supply Anthropic with 5 gigawatts of TPU-based compute. Stock is down 12.48% pre-market to $419.44.

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) reported Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $1.39 billion up 26%, beating estimates. Non-GAAP EPS $1.10 beat $1.07. ARR grew 24% to $5.51 billion. Billings grew only 18% to $1.35 billion, below expectations. Q2 revenue guidance of $1.436 billion to $1.442 billion missed the $1.463 billion consensus. Stock fell 11%. CrowdStrike announced a 4-for-1 Stock Split for July 2, 2026.

  • Broadcom's AI Business is structurally sound, the software miss, not the AI segment, drove the selloff; the $300 billion-plus backlog confirms hyperscaler XPU Demand is intact.
  • CrowdStrike's billings growing 18% against 26% revenue growth signals the pipeline is not accelerating as fast as the income statement implies.
  • Risk note: both stocks more than doubled year to date heading into Wednesday's close, the combined after-hours decline will cascade into AI infrastructure and Cybersecurity names at Thursday's open.
  1. Wednesday Stock Movers: TPL +10%, Medtronic +6%, Navitas +19%; Honeywell -5%, Global Payments -8%, Cognyte -21%

Texas Pacific Land (NYSE: TPL) surged 9.69% to $406.76 after an Exxon senior VP warned oil prices could spike to $150 to $160 per barrel, driving demand for TPL's Permian Basin pure-Royalty model. Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NVTS) surged 19.26% on 110 million-plus shares after announcing a collaboration with Nvidia within the MGX AI Factory ecosystem at Computex 2026. Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) gained 5.69% to $77.95 on its strongest annual revenue growth in a decade, raised FY2027 guidance, and 49 consecutive years of Dividend hikes. Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) fell 5.09% as Quantum Computing stocks tumbled ahead of the Quantinuum IPO pricing. Global Payments (NYSE: GPN) fell 8.35% after a price target cut citing Middle East travel exposure. Cognyte Software (NASDAQ: CGNT) fell 20.57% after non-GAAP EPS of $0.03 missed the $0.09 consensus despite a revenue beat.

  • TPL's surge on the $150-$160 oil price warning makes it one of the most direct Equity plays on Iran war escalation, a pure-royalty Permian Basin model captures near-100% Margin upside from any oil price spike.
  • Navitas is valued at roughly 137x forward sales against Q1 revenue of just $8.6 million; the Nvidia collaboration is a commercial validation but requires sustained AI factory adoption at scale to justify.
  • Risk note: Honeywell's decline on Quantinuum IPO uncertainty illustrates how quantum computing valuations are being reset in real time; any Quantinuum IPO disappointment would weigh further on HON.
  1. Capital Markets: SpaceX Roadshow Begins Today; $135 Price Confirmed; 30% Retail Allocation; Largest IPO in History

SpaceX publicly confirmed $135 per share for its IPO, targeting a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX. The roadshow begins today, with pricing expected June 11 and trading June 12. SpaceX is considering allocating up to 30% of the offering to individual investors. An institutional investor trying to buy shares was told allocations are a "David Solomon level decision." SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 on revenue of $18.67 billion, up 33%. The valuation implies approximately 90 times revenue with no true public comparable.

  • INNIO Group, a Munich-based distributed energy solutions provider, priced its upsized IPO at $27 per share for 90 million Nasdaq shares Wednesday, confirming energy infrastructure IPOs are finding strong demand amid elevated oil prices.
  • Risk note: SpaceX's AI segment lost $2.47 billion in Q1, V3 booster reusability remains unproven, and Musk's 85.1% voting control leaves public investors with no meaningful governance rights.
  1. Wednesday Close and Thursday Pre-Market: S&P Snaps 9-Day Win Streak; Bitcoin Hits Two-Month Low

The S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 7,553.68 Wednesday, snapping a nine-day winning streak. The Dow fell 1.21% to 50,687.07. The Nasdaq fell 0.89% to 26,853.976. The Russell 2000 fell 1.31%. VIX rose 2.18% to 16.41. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) closed down 0.76% at $358.68 after its equity raise was revised to $84.75 billion. Bitcoin fell 5.56% to $63,442.31, hitting its lowest since late February after Strategy's Michael Saylor sold 32 coins. Thursday pre-market: S&P down 0.37%, Nasdaq down 0.73%, Dow up 0.24%.

  • The nine-day win streak ended on the same day as the Broadcom and CrowdStrike after-hours selloffs, confirming AI earnings execution risk is now the primary market driver.
  • Risk note: the Dow rising while S&P and Nasdaq fall Thursday morning signals rotation from AI and technology into industrials and defensives.
  1. Today's Catalysts: Ciena Before the Open; Initial Claims at 8:30 AM ET; Samsara, Planet Labs and Rubrik Tonight

Ciena (NYSE: CIEN) reports fiscal Q2 before the open; consensus EPS $1.20 versus last year's $0.16, driven by AI networking optical demand. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims release at 8:30 AM ET alongside Revised Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. After the close: Samsara (NYSE: IOT) consensus EPS -$0.02, Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) consensus EPS -$0.13, Rubrik (NYSE: RBRK) consensus EPS -$0.44.

  • Ciena's coherent optical networking products connect AI data centres; a beat would confirm the optics Investment cycle is still in early innings despite the Broadcom software miss.
  • Risk note: in a risk-off tape driven by Broadcom and CrowdStrike, any guidance miss from tonight's loss-making reporters would be disproportionately punished.
  1. Wednesday Data Recap: ISM Services 53.9, ADP 110,000, Beige Book "Mixed"; Nonfarm Payrolls Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET

ISM Services PMI for May came in at 53.9, matching consensus and up from April's 53.6, sixth consecutive month of services expansion. ADP private payrolls for May came in at 110,000, matching the prior month's 109,000 and consensus. The Fed Beige Book, the first under Warsh, described conditions as "mixed," with Iran war supply chain disruptions cited in multiple districts. Nonfarm Payrolls for May release tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET; consensus approximately 185,000 with Unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%.

  • ISM Services at 53.9 and ADP at 110,000 together confirm a soft landing is still plausible; the complication is PCE at 3.8% means the Fed cannot cut even as growth moderates.
  • Risk note: a Nonfarm Payrolls print below 150,000 would force markets to price both slowing growth and elevated Inflation simultaneously, the most difficult macro environment for equity valuations of the entire post-war period.