It's been a mediocre week for Hugo Boss AG (ETR:BOSS) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to €36.90 in the week since its latest yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €4.3b and statutory earnings per share of €3.09 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Hugo Boss is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hugo Boss XTRA:BOSS Earnings and Revenue Growth March 15th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, Hugo Boss' 17 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €4.37b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 13% to €3.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €4.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.65 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.4% to €45.30, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hugo Boss at €74.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €34.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Hugo Boss' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hugo Boss.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hugo Boss' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Hugo Boss analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that  Hugo Boss is showing  1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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