One thing we could say about the analysts on Centuria Capital Group (ASX:CNI) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the latest downgrade, the nine analysts covering Centuria Capital Group provided consensus estimates of AU$251m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a painful 32% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 187% to AU$0.12. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$281m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.14 in 2024. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a considerable drop in earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Centuria Capital Group  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the AU$1.83 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 32% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 25% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 6.3% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Centuria Capital Group, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for this year, and they expect sales to lag the wider market. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Centuria Capital Group after the downgrade.



With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Centuria Capital Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management  invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.