Investors in Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX:CMM) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at AU$10.23 following the release of its annual results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of AU$518m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 10% to hit AU$0.37 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.ASX:CMM Earnings and Revenue Growth August 30th 2025

Following the latest results, Capricorn Metals' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$628.6m in 2026. This would be a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 75% to AU$0.61. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$598.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.60 in 2026. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a slight bump in to revenue forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Capricorn Metals

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of AU$10.46, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Capricorn Metals's valuation in the near term. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Capricorn Metals analyst has a price target of AU$12.15 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$9.30. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Capricorn Metals is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Capricorn Metals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 21% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 43% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Capricorn Metals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

Story Continues

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$10.46, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Capricorn Metals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Capricorn Metals analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our  analysis of Capricorn Metals' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

View Comments