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Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) is back in focus after recent share price weakness, with the stock down 2.6% over the past day and modestly lower over the past week and month.

See our latest analysis for Macquarie Group.

While the share price has slipped over the past week and month, the latest close at A$236.55 comes after a 90 day share price return of 8.33% and a year to date share price return of 16.11%, supported by a 1 year total shareholder return of 17.61% and 5 year total shareholder return of 85.37%. This indicates that recent weakness sits within a longer period of positive momentum.

If you are comparing Macquarie to other opportunities in financials and beyond, it can help to widen the lens with a curated list of resilient businesses, starting with the 4 top founder-led companies

So, with Macquarie’s recent share price wobble set against solid multi year shareholder returns, is the current level offering you a rare entry point, or is the market already fully pricing in the group’s future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Undervalued

On the most followed narrative, Macquarie Group’s fair value of A$238.63 sits just above the latest A$236.55 close, pointing to a tightly balanced set of expectations.

The business is positioned to benefit from potential performance fees and asset realization gains in key investment areas like data centers and green energy projects, potentially impacting earnings growth and improving return on equity as these assets mature.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what keeps that fair value so close to the live share price? The narrative leans heavily on steadier revenue growth, firmer margins and a richer future earnings multiple. The exact mix of those inputs matters. The full story shows how they fit together to support A$238.63.

Result: Fair Value of A$238.63 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that balance can shift quickly if competitive pressure in Banking and Financial Services keeps squeezing margins or if lower client activity in Commodities and Global Markets persists for longer than analysts expect.

Find out about the key risks to this Macquarie Group narrative.

Another Angle On Value

Analysts broadly see Macquarie as fairly priced around A$238.63, yet the SWS DCF model presents a different picture. It estimates the value of future cash flows at A$182.31, below the recent A$236.55 share price. If the cash flow view is closer to reality, how comfortable are you with that gap?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.MQG Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Macquarie Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 10 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment finely balanced between opportunity and caution, this is a good moment to move quickly by reviewing the data and testing your own thesis against the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop at just one stock, you risk missing out on other opportunities that may fit your goals and risk comfort even better.

Scan for quality at a discount by reviewing companies in the 10 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with potentially attractive pricing. Strengthen your income stream by checking out the 7 dividend fortresses that focus on higher yield and consistent shareholder payouts. Prioritize resilience by sizing up the 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores that screen for steadier balance sheets and lower overall risk profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MQG.AX.

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