Key Highlights

  • Nvidia was the top gainer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, touching an intraday all-time high of about $237.88 and briefly topping a $5.7 trillion market value, with the close near $233.95 by most sources.
  • Morgan Stanley named Nvidia its top semiconductor pick with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, centered on a new product cycle expecting CPU Revenue to double from $20 billion in 2026 to $40 billion in 2027.
  • The broader rally began with a weak September jobs report that cut Federal Reserve hike odds, lifting Teradyne, Monolithic Power, AMD, Intel and Broadcom the same session as the Nasdaq-100 set a record close.
  • Amazon is reportedly in talks to move about $8 billion of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special-purpose vehicle and Lease them back, while Tesla's Megapack batteries earned entry into Nvidia's DSX Ready program.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was the top gainer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, after the AI chip giant hit a record high during the session and Morgan Stanley named it the firm's top semiconductor pick. Shares touched an intraday all-time high of about $237.88, and Nvidia's Market Value briefly topped about $5.7 trillion. Several sources put the close near $233.95, while other closing data showed a larger gain; reports varied on the size of the move, but all agreed the stock finished firmly higher. Nvidia's climb helped the Dow add 250.40 points to 51,176.96. Of the 30 Dow stocks, 18 rose, and Nvidia led them all.

Morgan Stanley's Big Call

On October 2, Morgan Stanley named Nvidia its top semiconductor pick, with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. One source noted early in the session that the shares were rising on the top-pick reinstatement.

Morgan Stanley's thesis centres on a new product cycle. According to a summary of the bank's note, it sees Nvidia entering that cycle with a focus on CPUs, the general-purpose processors that run computers and servers, alongside its dominant graphics processors, or GPUs. Morgan Stanley expects Nvidia's CPU revenue to double from $20 billion in 2026 to $40 billion in 2027.

That matters because Nvidia's dominance has been built on GPUs, the chips used to train and run artificial intelligence models. A strong CPU Business would give it another major growth engine inside the same data centres.

The Jobs Report Lit the Fuse

The broader rally began with a weak September jobs report. Employers added only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations of about 84,000, and the Unemployment rate ticked up. July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000.

That cut the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27-28 meeting from roughly two in three earlier in the week to roughly one in five. Lower rate expectations tend to help high-growth technology stocks, and chipmakers led the charge.

Teradyne, Monolithic Power, AMD, Intel and Broadcom all climbed. The Nasdaq-100 set a record close of 30,807.93, while the Nasdaq Composite hit an intraday all-time high before closing up 319.27 points.

AI Spending Remains the Backdrop

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has framed the opportunity in sweeping terms, describing the buildout of AI factories as the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, accelerating at extraordinary speed.

Friday's news flow reinforced that theme. Amazon is in talks to move about $8 billion of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special-purpose vehicle and lease them back, according to a report. Tesla's Megapack batteries also earned entry into Nvidia's DSX Ready program for AI data centres.

Strength Amid a Narrow Market

Not everything rallied. Nike was the worst performer in the Dow after weak results, and only about one in five S&P 500 stocks traded above their 50-day moving averages. Treasury yields also reversed to close higher, with the 10-year near its highest level since 2002.

Watching the CPU Thesis and AI Customer Spending

The Fed's October 27-28 meeting is the next big macro event. Earnings season opens with PepsiCo on October 8, and the big banks follow on October 13 and 14.

For Nvidia, investors will watch whether the stock can hold near its record and whether more analysts echo Morgan Stanley's CPU thesis. Comments from AI customers such as Amazon about Capital spending will also be closely tracked.