Key Highlights

  • Micron reports fiscal Q4 results on Sept. 30; consensus is EPS of $31.14 on Revenue of about $50.42 billion, against guidance of $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion.
  • Fiscal Q3 revenue reached $41.46 billion with an 84.6% GAAP gross Margin and GAAP EPS of $24.67, and every Business unit posted gross margins of 79% or higher.
  • Analyst views range from Goldman's Hold ($1,100 target) to Buy ratings at $1,300 to $1,325; the fiscal Q1 2027 outlook is the key swing factor.
  • Micron shares have gained 224% so far in 2026 and last traded at $1,096.16, making the fiscal Q4 guidance arguably as important as the results themselves.

Wall Street expects Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) to post another record quarter when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Sept. 30. Consensus calls for Earnings of $31.14 per share, compared with $3.03 a year earlier, on revenue of about $50.42 billion, more than 345% above the prior-year period. Those estimates sit at or slightly above the midpoint of the company's own guidance.

Micron confirmed the date in an Aug. 26 announcement and will hold its conference call at 2:30 p.m. Mountain time. In June, management guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to $50.0 billion, plus or minus $1.0 billion, with a gross margin of about 86% and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $31.00, plus or minus $1.00.

The shares go into the report on a strong run. Micron rose 5% on Tuesday, Sept. 22, last trading at $1,096.16. The stock had gained 224% so far in 2026 as of mid-September. With a move of that size, the guidance for the next quarter may matter as much as the results themselves.

The Record Quarter That Set the Bar

Micron's fiscal third quarter, which ended May 28 and was reported on June 24, showed how far the AI-driven memory upcycle has gone. Revenue reached $41.46 billion, up from $23.86 billion in the prior quarter and $9.30 billion a year earlier. GAAP gross margin widened to 84.6% from 37.7% a year earlier, and GAAP Operating Margin reached 80.4%.

GAAP Net Income was $28.24 billion, or $24.67 per diluted share, and non-GAAP EPS was $25.11. Operating Cash Flow was $25.39 billion. After net Capital spending of $7.1 billion, adjusted free cash flow was $18.3 billion. Micron ended the quarter with $30.2 billion of cash, marketable investments and restricted cash, and it has cut long-term Debt to $5.14 billion from $14.02 billion at the end of August 2025. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, revenue totaled $78.96 billion, compared with $26.06 billion a year earlier, and the board declared a quarterly Dividend of $0.15 per share.

"Micron's record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era," CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said. He also said multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements should "significantly enhance the durability and predictability" of the company's financial performance.

Every Business Unit Is Riding the Upcycle

The strength was not limited to data centers. The Cloud Memory Business Unit, which includes high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators, generated $13.77 billion in revenue at an 83% gross margin. Core Data Center brought in $11.52 billion, Mobile and Client $11.52 billion, and Automotive and Embedded $4.63 billion. Each unit reported a gross margin of 79% or higher, which shows that tight Supply has lifted pricing across the entire product range, not only in AI.

On products, Micron said HBM4 is in high-volume shipments for its lead customer's platform, with qualification samples sent to other customers. HBM4E, built on its 1-gamma DRAM process, is expected to enter Volume production in calendar 2027. The company also highlighted a 245-terabyte QLC data center SSD and a high-volume ramp of 1-gamma LPDDR5X memory at a leading smartphone maker.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts generally expect the company to beat estimates, but ratings and targets vary. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst James Schneider has a Hold rating and a $1,100 price target. He forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $51.9 billion, EPS of $32.54 and a gross margin of 87.3%, and he expects Micron to guide fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue up by a low-teens percentage from the prior quarter, driven by product mix and pricing.

Bernstein's Mark Li reiterated a Buy rating with a $1,300 target on Sept. 8, and Lynx Equity Research kept a Buy with a $1,325 target, citing tight memory supply and strong HBM demand. Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh kept a Buy but cut his target to $1,300 from $1,375, citing "some multiple compression from concerns around de-specing on future GPU/ASICs." The consensus rating is Strong Buy from 29 Buy ratings and one Hold, with an average target of $1,563.93.

The Competitive Backdrop

Micron competes mainly with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics in DRAM and HBM. On Sept. 16, it emerged that SK Hynix was in exploratory talks with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) to manufacture memory chips in the U.S. for the first time, possibly by leasing part of Intel's Ohio facility. SK Hynix said it had not finalized any plans. The company has already broken ground on a $4 billion Facility in Indiana and announced plans in June to double its capacity over five years. If SK Hynix builds up U.S. production, Micron's status as the only large U.S.-headquartered memory maker could become less of a differentiator, especially for customers and policymakers focused on domestic supply. For now, the talks are exploratory and any deal involving advanced memory such as HBM could face opposition from the South Korean government.

Risks Heading Into the Print

  • Cyclicality: Memory has historically moved through sharp boom-and-bust cycles, and margins in the mid-80% range are far above past averages.
  • Capacity additions: Expansion plans by SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron itself could eventually loosen supply and pressure prices.
  • Design changes: Mizuho's reference to "de-specing" reflects concern that future AI processors could use less memory than expected.
  • High expectations: With the stock up more than 200% this year and consensus slightly above the guidance midpoint, results in line with estimates may not be enough to lift the shares.

Three Numbers That Will Move the Stock on Sept. 30

When Micron reports after the close on Sept. 30, the main items will be revenue against the $50 billion guidance midpoint, whether gross margin reaches or exceeds 86%, and the fiscal first-quarter 2027 outlook.

Investors will also look for updates on HBM4 customer qualifications, the progress of HBM4E toward 2027 volume production, capital spending plans, and more detail on the Strategic Customer Agreements that management says will make its results more predictable.