Key Highlights

● Applied Materials reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after Thursday's bell.

● Guidance points to about $10.25 billion in revenue.

● Adjusted Earnings are expected near $4.02 a share.

● It is the first big chip-equipment read since Nvidia's Leadership crisis.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell on Thursday. It will be the first big read on chipmaking-equipment Demand since Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s leadership crisis hit the semiconductor group. The company's guidance points to about $10.25 billion in Revenue and adjusted earnings of about $4.02 a share, according to pre-market earnings previews.

Earnings-calendar data shows the guidance range: revenue of $9.75 billion to $10.75 billion and EPS of $3.82 to $4.22. Consensus was slightly above the midpoints, at about $10.30 billion in revenue and $4.06 a share, which would mean growth of roughly 51% and 87% from a year earlier. The unofficial "whisper" number is $4.20.

A crowded setup

Applied Materials is the largest US supplier of wafer-fabrication equipment, the machines that deposit, etch and modify materials on silicon wafers. It belongs to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. That means its after-hours move can show up in Nasdaq futures overnight and affect the many index products that hold it.

Options traders are bracing for a big move. Implied Volatility pointed to a swing of about 7.9% in either direction after the report, according to pre-market earnings previews. The stock has been volatile coming in. Its shares were down 23.5% since the previous report as of Nov. 4, but reports said an 11% jump on Nov. 9, with Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) up 9% and ASML up 6% that day.

Thursday's tape is against it

The broader chip tape turned negative before the open. Nvidia was down roughly 6% to 7% in pre-market trading after reports that its board was weighing whether to remove CEO Jensen Huang. Those reports have not been independently confirmed, and no board decision had been announced as of early Thursday. Lam Research, one of Applied's closest peers, was about 1.9% lower pre-market, as were Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

That pullback comes right after Wednesday's surge, when the PHLX Semiconductor index rose 5.7% and every component rose. As of about 5:26 a.m. ET, Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.63%.

What to listen for

Gross Margin is one focus. Applied posted a record 50.4% last quarter and guided the fourth quarter roughly flat, as hiring and capacity costs offset higher volume. Investors will also want management's first view of calendar 2027 spending by chipmakers, particularly memory makers and leading-edge foundries.

China matters too. On its previous call, Applied said it expected China revenue to grow in both 2026 and 2027 after treating it as flat for most of the year. Any change to that outlook, or new remarks on export rules, could move the whole equipment group.

The main risk is that a solid quarter is not enough. Reports noted that bullish sentiment going into the report had fallen to 19.8% from 25.1% a quarter earlier. A beat combined with cautious guidance could disappoint. Higher rates also weigh on richly valued growth stocks: the 10-year Treasury Yield was near 5% on Thursday, and futures implied roughly 85% to 90% odds of a December rate hike.

Applied is not the only report tonight. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) reports after the bell with a 4:30 p.m. ET call, and Cerebras (NASDAQ:CBRS) holds its call at 5 p.m. ET. Taken together, the three will give a broad after-hours read on AI infrastructure spending ahead of Nvidia's own results on Nov. 17.