Key Highlights

  • Q2 worldwide RevPAR rose 3.4%, with U.S. and Canada up 5.0% and the Middle East down 43%, according to Marriott's Aug. 3 release.
  • Marriott raised its full-year RevPAR growth outlook to 3.0%-3.5% from 2%-3% and guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $11.64-$11.81.
  • Shares fell about 7% on results day as Q3 EPS guidance of $2.74-$2.82 trailed consensus; the stock closed at $348.06 on Sept. 22, about 14% below its June high.
  • Marriott Bonvoy loyalty membership passed 295 million, and the company signed new long-term co-branded Credit card agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express.

Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR) raised its 2026 revenue-per-available-room forecast even though Demand in the Middle East collapsed. It relied on strength in the U.S., Europe and Asia to more than offset the regional slump. In its Aug. 3 second-quarter release, the hotel giant said worldwide RevPAR rose 3.4%, led by 5.0% growth in the U.S. and Canada. That was despite a 43% RevPAR decline in the Middle East, which the company attributed to the regional conflict.

On the back of that outperformance, Marriott lifted its full-year global RevPAR growth forecast to 3.0% to 3.5%, up from a previous range of 2% to 3%. It now expects third-quarter RevPAR growth of 3.5% to 4.0%. Adjusted Earnings Per Share rose 20% to $3.19, and adjusted EBITDA climbed 13% to $1.59 billion.

The market was less impressed than the headline numbers might suggest. Marriott shares fell about 7% on Aug. 3, from $372.83 to $346.83, after Revenue missed estimates and third-quarter earnings guidance came in below consensus. The shares had already been drifting lower in the sessions before the report, and they have not regained their July levels since. The stock closed at $348.06 on Sept. 22, roughly 14% below its 52-week closing high of $402.54 on June 12.

How the U.S. and Asia Offset the Middle East

Chief Executive Anthony Capuano said U.S. and Canada RevPAR gains were "broad-based" across chain scales and customer segments. Company data showed U.S. and Canada luxury RevPAR up about 9% systemwide, with the Ritz-Carlton up 9.9% and W Hotels up 8.9%.

Internationally, RevPAR fell 0.5%. In EMEA, RevPAR declined more than 5% as gains in Europe were outweighed by the Middle East. Systemwide Middle East and Africa occupancy fell nearly 16 percentage points to about 51%. Elsewhere, Asia Pacific excluding China grew RevPAR more than 5% on leisure and intra-regional travel. Greater China rose more than 3%, helped by luxury properties in markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Hainan.

"With the outperformance in the second quarter and strong broad-based demand generally expected to continue, we are raising our full year expectation," Capuano said. Pricing did most of the work. Worldwide systemwide occupancy was essentially flat at 71.6%, while average daily rate rose 3.5% to about $194. In the U.S. and Canada, average daily rate rose 4.7% and occupancy edged up 0.2 percentage point to 74.0%. That mix suggests travelers are still accepting higher room rates, particularly at the luxury end.

Second-Quarter Numbers in Detail

Gross fee revenues rose 13% to $1.58 billion. Franchise fees climbed 19% to $1.02 billion, helped by higher co-branded credit card fees, rooms growth and higher RevPAR. Incentive management fees rose to $212 million from $200 million. Reported Net Income was $766 million, or $2.90 per diluted share, roughly flat with a year earlier. The result included a $68 million Impairment tied to a hotel sale and a $27 million litigation accrual.

Adjusted EPS of $3.19 beat estimates by 11 cents, but revenue missed expectations by $120 million. Marriott guided third-quarter adjusted EPS to $2.74 to $2.82, below the $2.87 analyst consensus, and full-year adjusted EPS to $11.64 to $11.81. It expects full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.965 billion to $6.025 billion and gross fee revenues of $6.025 billion to $6.055 billion. For the third quarter, it guided gross fee revenues to $1.474 billion to $1.483 billion.

For the first half as a whole, adjusted diluted EPS rose 19% to $5.91 from $4.97, helped by a lower share count after buybacks. Worldwide RevPAR for the six months increased 3.8%.

A Fee Machine Built on Rooms Growth and Loyalty

Marriott's asset-light model depends on adding rooms and collecting fees rather than owning hotels. The company added about 17,900 net rooms in the quarter, and net rooms grew 4.5% year over year. Its development pipeline reached a record of roughly 629,000 rooms across 4,186 properties, with 44% of pipeline rooms under construction. It now expects net rooms growth at the low end of its 4.5% to 5% range for 2026.

The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program passed 295 million members. The company also signed new long-term U.S. co-branded credit card agreements with JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and American Express (NYSE:AXP), which it expects to add incremental fee income. Marriott repurchased 3.0 million shares for $1.1 billion in the quarter and expects to return more than $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2026.

How Marriott Stacks Up Against Rivals

Marriott competes with Hilton (NYSE:HLT), Hyatt (NASDAQ:H) and IHG (NYSE:IHG) for travelers, hotel owners and loyalty members. Home-sharing platforms are also pushing further into hotel inventory; Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) said on Aug. 6 that hotel nights booked on its platform grew about three times faster than homes in the second quarter. Its scale and the size of its loyalty base help it win conversion deals. Conversions made up more than a third of signings and 40% of openings in the first half, according to the company. Its heavy exposure to U.S. and Canada demand, where RevPAR is running ahead of international markets, has been an advantage this year.

Risks That Could Test the Outlook

  • Geopolitics: The Middle East downturn shows how quickly conflict can hit occupancy and rates. A wider disruption could spread to other regions.
  • Earnings conversion: The below-consensus third-quarter EPS range suggests stronger RevPAR is not flowing through to profit as quickly as analysts expected.
  • Leverage: Total Debt rose to $16.9 billion from $16.2 billion at year-end 2025, while cash stood at about $0.5 billion. Heavy Buybacks keep Leverage in focus.
  • Rooms growth: Guidance at the low end of the 4.5% to 5% range leaves little room for development delays.
  • U.S. consumer: With the U.S. and Canada driving growth, any slowdown in domestic travel spending would weigh on results.

Whether Third-Quarter Guidance Can Hold

The next major checkpoint is Marriott's third-quarter report, which has historically arrived in early November. Investors will watch whether RevPAR growth lands within the 3.5% to 4.0% range and whether adjusted EPS meets the $2.74 to $2.82 guidance. Other watchpoints include any recovery or further weakening in the Middle East, early commentary on 2027 demand, and progress toward the more than $4.5 billion capital-return target.