Key Highlights

● United traded around $106.50 to $107.44 during the session.

● A rival cut its 2026 outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 a share.

● UBS cut estimates and targets for several carriers.

● Brent crude settled at $104.72 a barrel.

United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) slipped on Friday, trading at roughly $106.50 to $107.44 during the session, as investors digested a disappointing report from rival Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL). Accounts of the exact size of United's decline varied across the day, but the direction was consistently lower.

Delta, which traditionally kicks off airline earnings season, posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 a share, below consensus estimates that ranged from $1.82 to $1.92. More importantly for United, Delta cut its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to $5.10 to $5.60 a share from $6.50 to $7.50, citing higher fuel costs as a key reason.

Why Delta's fuel bill matters to United

Airlines buy jet fuel in the same global market, so a cost shock at one carrier usually signals pressure at others. Delta said its third-quarter fuel bill rose to $4.1 billion, well above a year earlier, and that it expects about $6 billion in added fuel costs this year.

Oil prices remain high. Brent crude settled at $104.72 a barrel on Friday and US crude at $91.85, with Hurricane Isaias shutting in nearly two-thirds of Gulf of Mexico oil output. The conflict involving Iran has kept energy markets tense, although President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that "we are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran." and that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms. He also announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel.

Analysts cut their numbers

The pressure on United was reinforced by analysts. UBS (NYSE:UBS) cut its 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates and price targets for Delta, United and American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and said it expects third-quarter misses, according to market data. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) trimmed estimates for Delta, United, Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK) and Southwest (NYSE:LUV). Neither firm's specific new targets were detailed in the reports.

American Airlines also slipped in early trading, and the US Global Jets ETF, which tracks airline stocks, edged lower.

Demand still looks solid

There was one bright spot in Delta's report. Chief executive Ed Bastian said: "The consumer response continues to be quite strong." Delta's own shares recovered from premarket losses to finish about flat.

Broader consumer data was less encouraging. The University of Michigan's preliminary October sentiment index fell to 46.3, a five-month low. Survey director Joanne Hsu said "Frustration over cost-of-living continues to mount".

Market context

The wider market rose on Friday. The S&P 500 gained 46.18 points to 7,811.54, finishing just shy of its record close, and the Dow added 423.31 points to 51,654.95. Airlines lagged as fuel worries weighed on the group.

Rates add to the cost pressure on airlines, which carry large fleets financed with debt. Borrowing costs remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield near a 24-year high after the Federal Reserve's first rate increase since 2023 in September.

United's Own Quarterly Report Will Test the Fuel Squeeze

United's own quarterly report will be the next major test of how much fuel costs are eating into airline profits, and investors will be listening for comments on demand and capacity. Oil prices and the path of Hurricane Isaias will also matter. On the macro calendar, September consumer price data arrives on Wednesday, October 14, bank earnings run from October 13 to 16 and the Fed meets on October 27 to 28. Stock exchanges stay open on Monday, October 12, though the bond market observes Columbus Day.