Key Highlights

  • Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 264 million in the third quarter, with free Cash Flow of CAD 93 million, or CAD 0.29 per share, and fleet availability of 92.6%.
  • Alberta spot power averaged about CAD 36 in the third quarter, down from CAD 51 a year earlier, while the gas fleet realized CAD 55 per MWh.
  • The Boreal Data Center project near Keephills is now anticipated to reach up to 1.6 GW of load, with 230 MW of initial grid allocation.
  • The company closed the USD 1 billion purchase of two Colorado gas peaking plants and sold 49% of its Oklahoma wind portfolio for USD 305 million.

Third Quarter Cash Flow Holds Up in a Soft Alberta Market

TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) held its third quarter 2026 call on November 3, 2026, and said it remains confident of reaching its 2026 guidance ranges. Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 264 million and free cash flow of CAD 93 million came even though Alberta spot prices fell to about CAD 36 per MWh from CAD 51 in the third quarter of 2025, on strong Supply and mild weather. Management said hedges of roughly 2.5 thousand GWh at an average CAD 65 per MWh sat CAD 28 above spot. Corporate costs were 20% lower than a year earlier, and a CAD 51 million reduction in carbon obligation also helped.

Mothballing, Colorado Gas and Oklahoma Wind Sale

On November 2, 2026, the company told the Alberta system operator it will mothball its Battle River units and extend the Sundance 6 mothball outage. The CEO called it purely an economic decision because capacity factors at Battle River are very low, and said 45 employees remain on site to keep the units ready. In October, the company closed the USD 1 billion Acquisition of two Colorado gas peaking plants totaling 318 MW, expected to add about CAD 110 million of adjusted EBITDA a year. It also sold 49% of its 502 MW Oklahoma wind portfolio to Ares Infrastructure Funds for USD 305 million while keeping operational control.

Data Center Timing, Hedge Book and Risks

The Keephills data center project, now called the Boreal Technology Hub, won approval from the Alberta Utilities Commission in October 2026, but the CEO said definitive agreements with partners Brookfield, CPP Investment and BGRE are probably early 2027 rather than 2026. That depends on how much underutilized generation the system operator allows. Hedging covers about 6.7 thousand GWh in 2027 at CAD 65 per MWh, which management said is well above current forward prices, so weak spot prices would erode that cushion over time. In the United States, the Department of Energy ordered Centralia Unit 2 to stay available for another 90 days, and cost recovery is expected but not assured.

Where Things Stand

The mothball decision reflects weak Economics at low-use units, not a cash flow shortfall: the company said the move preserves optionality for data center demand. TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) delivered CAD 264 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-IFRS measure, while Alberta spot prices were lower and hedges and fleet optimization filled much of the gap. Execution items to watch are the Centralia environmental permits expected by year end, a final investment decision on its gas conversion next year, the Boreal agreements, and how long the 2027 hedge premium holds.