Air Canada

Kalkine’s “Global Travel and Leisure Report” delivers an in-depth analysis of leading companies and transformative trends shaping the travel ecosystem across the U.S., Canada, Australia, UK, and New Zealand. The report spans the full travel value chain from airlines and hospitality groups to digital travel platforms and the booming growth in leisure, entertainment, gaming/casinos, retail and consumer discretionary sectors, capturing how these segments are revolutionizing modern travel experiences.

Canada's Travel and Leisure sector in 2025 is resilient and growth-oriented, driven by digital transformation (particularly AI integration), a decent push for sustainability, favorable government policies, and renewed demand from both domestic and international travelers. The sector spans a diverse value chain including airlines, hotels, digital travel platforms, entertainment, gaming, casinos, retail, and consumer discretionary, each playing a vital role in reshaping travel experiences. Growth is further fueled by rising immigration, increased urban mobility, and a shift toward personalized, health-secure, and eco-conscious travel. While challenges like labor shortages, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory uncertainties remain, the sector’s outlook remains positive, hinging on its ability to scale innovation, attract investment, and expand capacity.

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Analysis: Kalkine Group 

Canada’s travel and tourism industry continues to demonstrate resilience and recovery in Q2 2025, contributing significantly to the national economy and employment landscape.

• Total Economic Contribution: Tourism GDP rose by 1.3% in Q2 2025. On a nominal basis, the tourism sector’s share of Canadian GDP stood at 77% in Q2 2025, up from 1.75% in Q1 2025.
• Employment Impact: The number of jobs attributable to the tourism industry increased by 6% in Q2 2025. Total employment in the tourism sector reached ~712,100 jobs in Q2 2025. Tourism’s share of total employment rose to 3.34% in Q2 2025. The job gains were seen in Food & beverage services: +0.8% and Recreation & entertainment: +1.4%.

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Analysis: Kalkine Group 

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Analysis: Kalkine Group 

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Analysis: Kalkine Group 

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Analysis: Kalkine Group 

Image source: © 2025 Krish Capital Pty. Ltd., Analysis: Kalkine Group  

Amid elevated Market Volatility and Global Economic Headwinds, Air Canada (TSX: AC) stands out as our defensive pick within the Industrials Sector, supported by rigorous fundamental and technical research. 

Section1: Company Overview and Fundamental Insights:

Air Canada (TSX: AC) is Canada's largest airline, generally serving nearly 50 million passengers each year together with its regional partners. Air Canada is a sixth freedom airline, similar to Gulf carriers, which flies many U.S. nationals on long-haul trips with a layover in Canada. In 2019, the company generated CAD 19 billion in total revenue.

Kalkine’s “Global Travel and Leisure Report” covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

The top 10 shareholders together form ~12.24% of the total shareholding. RBC Global Asset Management Inc. and The Vanguard Group, Inc. hold a maximum stake in the company at ~3.60% and ~1.71%, respectively.

The company reported rising Closing Cash & Cash Equivalents in Q3 2025 against pcp, which is a key positive. Along with this, the company also clocked higher Net Cash Flows from Operating Activities and Operating Revenues - Other, displaying its decent growth and operating efficiency.

Section 2: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

The picture below gives an overview of the company’s recent activity, such as an update on Share Buyback Program (NCIB) Expanded & Executed Fully.

Section 3: Key Risks and Company Outlook

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

The stock has witnessed an upside of ~1.49% and ~2.20% over the last 1 week and 6 months respectively. Moreover, it is trading below the average 52-week high price of CAD 26.18 and 52-week low price of CAD 12.69, providing an opportunity to accumulate the stock.

Valuation Methodology: EV to Sales Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 12, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.