AppLovin Corporation

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview:

AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) operates as a marketing technology company, offering comprehensive software and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions that enable businesses to connect with, monetize, and expand their global user base.

Kalkine’s Diversified Opportunities Report covers the Company Overview, Key positives & negatives, Investment summary, Key investment metrics, Top 10 shareholding, Business updates and insights into company recent financial results, Key Risks & Outlook, Price performance and technical summary, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Stock Performance:

• Current Price: USD 52 (down 3.46% today), offering a potential pullback entry within a broader recovery pattern since April 2025. After bottoming in March, the stock has shown signs of stabilization and higher lows, suggesting possible accumulation. While the price is currently below both moving averages, this may present a buy-on-dip opportunity near support zones
• 21-day MA: USD 70 and 50-day MA: USD  353.80. The 21-day MA is below the 50-day MA, a classic bearish crossover pattern that confirms short-term weakness. Price is trading below both MAs, further strengthening the bearish sentiment.
• Current RSI: 45.93 which is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening buying momentum, though not yet oversold (<30).         

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, and Investment summary

1.3 Top 10 shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~ 38.65% of the total shareholding, signifying concentrated shareholding. The Vanguard Group, Inc. and Angel Pride Holdings Ltd. are the biggest shareholders, holding the maximum stake in the company at 5.76% and 5.60%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics:

The chart illustrates a consistent quarter-over-quarter increase in AppLovin’s revenue from Q1 FY24 (USD 1,058.1 million) to Q1 FY25 (USD 1,484 million), primarily driven by strong growth in its advertising segment, notably the AI-powered AXON platform. Net income rose steadily through FY24, peaking at USD 599.2 million in Q4, reflecting higher operating efficiency and margin expansion. However, in Q1 FY25, net income slightly declined to USD 576.4 million despite higher revenue, due to a USD 189 million goodwill impairment tied to the planned sale of the Apps segment and significant equity reductions from share repurchases. The trend highlights shifting business priorities and evolving cost structures.

Section 2: Business Updates and Corporate Business Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates

2.2 Insights of Q1FY25:

Section 3: Key Risks & Outlook

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

Stock Performance:

• Current Price: USD 52 (down 3.46% today), offering a potential pullback entry within a broader recovery pattern since April 2025. After bottoming in March, the stock has shown signs of stabilization and higher lows, suggesting possible accumulation. While the price is currently below both moving averages, this may present a buy-on-dip opportunity near support zones
• 21-day MA: USD 70 and 50-day MA: USD  353.80. The 21-day MA is below the 50-day MA, a classic bearish crossover pattern that confirms short-term weakness. Price is trading below both MAs, further strengthening the bearish sentiment.
• Current RSI: 45.93 which is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening buying momentum, though not yet oversold (<30).

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings per share Multiple Based Relative Valuation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 10, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.