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Are Air Canada’s Margins and Cash Flows Too Fragile for the Next Downcycle – AC?

Feb 04, 2026 | Team Kalkine
Are Air Canada’s Margins and Cash Flows Too Fragile for the Next Downcycle – AC?
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  • AC:TSX
  • Investment Type
    Mid - Cap
  • Risk Level
  • Action
  • Rec. Price (CA$)

Section1: Company Overview

Air Canada (TSX: AC) is Canada's largest airline, generally serving nearly 50 million passengers each year together with its regional partners. Air Canada is a sixth freedom airline, similar to Gulf carriers, which flies many U.S. nationals on long-haul trips with a layover in Canada. In 2019, the company generated CAD 19 billion in total revenue.

This Report covers the Key Recommendation Rationale, Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock. 

Section 2:  Stock Recommendation Summary

Valuation Methodology (Illustrative): EV to Sales Multiple based Relative Valuation approach:

The stock has witnessed an upside of ~7.82% and ~10.18% over the 1 week and 3 months respectively. It is trading above the average of 52-week high price of CAD 23.72 and 52-week low price of CAD 12.69, providing an opportunity to exit, as the stock might make some correction.

AC, Daily Technical Price Chart as on 03 February 2026, Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels as on 03 February 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.


Disclaimer-

Kalkine Equities LLC, with Delaware File Number 4697384, Foreign Qualification Registration in California File Number 202109211078, and Texas File Number 805521396, is authorized to provide general advice only. The information on https://kalkine.com/ does not take into account any of your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of advice taking into account your own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek independent financial advice before making any financial decisions. The link to our Terms and Conditions  and Privacy Policy has been provided for your reference. On the date of publishing the reports (mentioned on the website), employees and/or associates of Kalkine do not hold positions in any of the stocks covered on the website. These stocks can change any time and readers of the reports should not consider these stocks as advice or recommendations later.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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