Moderna, Inc.

MRNA Details

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is a commercial-stage biotechnology company created in 2010. As of early 2021, Moderna had 24 mRNA development programmes, with 13 of those in clinical trials. Infectious disease and oncology are among the therapeutic areas covered by the programmes.

The Company announced on February 3, 2022, that it would report the fourth quarter and full-year 2021 financial results on February 24, 2022.

Latest News:

• New Collaboration: On February 16, 2022, MRNA and Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi, S.A. has established a long-term partnership to expand ROVI's compounding, aseptic filling, inspection, labelling, and packaging capacities in Madrid.
• Expansion in Asia Pacific Region: On February 15, 2022, Moderna, Inc. announced the addition of four new subsidiaries in Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong to its commercial network in Asia. This expansion comes as the Company ramps up the production and distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine and future mRNA vaccines and therapeutics.
• Agreement with the Govt of Columbia: On February 8, 2022, Moderna, Inc. announced a new supply agreement with the Colombian government for 10.8 million doses of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine. These doses are in addition to the 10 million doses that Colombia will receive in 2021.

Financial Highlights: Q3FY21 (ended on September 30, 2021)

 (Source: Company Filing)

• Solid topline performance: The company has reported a total revenue of US5D bn in Q3FY21, a growth from USD 157m in the same quarter of the previous financial year. Rise in sales is mainly attributed to the commercial sales of its Covid-19 vaccine (Spikevax) as well as grant revenue to a smaller extent.
• Posted positive net income: Net income in Q3FY21 stood at USD 3.3bn compared to a net loss of USD 233m in the prior-year period. Strong bottom line performance is mainly driven by significant reduction in cost of sales as % to revenue.
• Improved liquidity: Company’s liquidity profile strengthened significantly to USD 15.3 bn as of September 30, 2021, compared to USD 5.2 bn reported as of December 31, 2020.

Key Risks:

• Delay in regulatory approvals: Positive efficacy and safety data from ongoing clinical studies of our COVID-19 vaccine, as well as the FDA's EUA, may not be indicative of the results of the clinical trials, which is one of several factors that could delay from receiving full regulatory approval for the vaccine.
• Government policy risk: One or more government actions or interventions may limit the Company's capacity to produce a viable vaccine and deliver it to clients, likely during a global health catastrophe like COVID-19.

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Multiple based Relative Valuation

Analysis by Kalkine Group

Stock Recommendation:

The company reported decent performance in the Q3FY21 driven by sales of 208 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. Further the company expects to realize product sales between USD15 and USD18bn for FY2021 and plans to supply 700-800 million 100µg doses of its Covid-19 vaccine this fiscal year. However, Therefore, given its robust financials, new arrangements and expansions, current valuation, and risk associated, we recommend a "Buy" rating on the stock at the current market price of USD 147.95, February 16, 2022, at 01:51 PM ET.

1-Year Technical Price Chart (as on February 16, 2022, at 01:50 PM ET). Source: REFINITIV, Analysis by Kalkine Group

Technical Summary Analysis

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Note 1: The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.  

Note 2: Investment decision should be made depending on the investors' appetite on upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the valuation has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.