United Parcel Service, Inc.

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) delivers comprehensive logistics and transportation solutions to customers across more than 200 countries and territories. The company operates through two primary segments: U.S. Domestic Package and International Package.

Key Business Updates (for Q3 FY25)

• Strong Consolidated Financial Performance: United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) announced its third-quarter 2025 consolidated revenues of USD 21.4 billion, reflecting continued strength in its diversified business model. The company reported a consolidated operating profit of USD 1.8 billion, or USD 2.1 billion on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, underscoring solid underlying profitability. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) stood at USD 1.55, with non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of USD 1.74, demonstrating operational efficiency despite macroeconomic and volume pressures.
• GAAP Adjustments and Strategic Transactions: UPS’s GAAP results for the quarter included a net charge of USD 164 million, equivalent to USD 0.19 per diluted share, primarily due to after-tax transformation strategy costs of USD 250 million. This was partially offset by an USD 86 million benefit resulting from the reversal of an income tax valuation allowance. Additionally, the company executed a sale-leaseback transaction involving five properties, which generated a USD 330 million pre-tax gain within the Supply Chain Solutions segment, contributing USD 0.30 per diluted share. The transaction aligns with UPS’s broader capital allocation strategy to monetize non-core real estate assets and reinvest proceeds into growth initiatives while maintaining operational continuity.
• Leadership Commentary and Strategic Focus: Chief Executive Officer Carol Tomé expressed appreciation for the commitment of UPS employees and reaffirmed the company’s focus on long-term transformation. She stated that UPS is undergoing “the most significant strategic shift” in its history, aimed at enhancing stakeholder value. With the upcoming holiday shipping season, the company is prepared to execute “the most efficient peak in its history,” ensuring industry-leading service performance for the eighth consecutive year.
• Segment Performance: U.S. Domestic Operations: The U.S. Domestic Segment reported revenue of USD 14.22 billion, representing a 2.6% decline year over year, primarily driven by lower package volumes. However, the impact was partially mitigated by higher revenue per piece and growth in air cargo revenues. The operating profit was USD 603 million and USD 905 million on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, translating into an operating margin of 4.2% and a non-GAAP adjusted margin of 6.4%. These figures reflect disciplined cost management amid ongoing volume normalization.
• Segment Performance: International Operations: The International Segment demonstrated resilience with revenue growth of 5.9%, reaching USD 4.67 billion, primarily driven by a 4.8% increase in average daily volume. The operating profit stood at USD 676 million, or USD 691 million on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, resulting in operating margins of 14.5% and 14.8%, respectively. This performance reflects effective network optimization and sustained demand across key global markets.
• Segment Performance: Supply Chain Solutions: Revenue for the Supply Chain Solutions segment totaled USD 2.52 billion, a 22.1% decline year over year, mainly due to the 2024 divestiture of Coyote, a non-core business. Despite the revenue contraction, profitability improved significantly, with an operating profit of USD 525 million and USD 536 million on a non-GAAP adjusted basis. The segment’s operating margin expanded to 20.8% (non-GAAP 21.3%), supported by the property sale-leaseback gain and robust performance in logistics and freight forwarding operations.
• Outlook and Capital Allocation for FY2025: Looking ahead, UPS provided fourth-quarter 2025 guidance projecting approximately USD 24.0 billion in revenue and a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin between 11.0% and 11.5%. For the full year 2025, UPS expects capital expenditures of around USD 3.5 billion, dividend payments of approximately USD 5.5 billion, and an effective tax rate of 23.75%. The company anticipates pension contributions of USD 1.4 billion, with USD 1.3 billion already completed, and confirmed USD 1.0 billion in share repurchases, reflecting its disciplined approach to shareholder returns and long-term financial sustainability.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

UPS shares rallied 8% to USD 96.36, breaking above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages with strong volume, signaling a bullish reversal. The RSI near 89 shows overbought conditions, suggesting possible short-term consolidation. However, momentum has turned positive.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Watch’ rating has been given to United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) at the closing market price of USD 96.36 as of Oct 28,2025. 

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is October 28,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.