This report is an updated version of the report published on 27 November 2025 at 12:30 PM AEDT.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) 

Northern Star Resources Ltd is a global-scale Australian gold producer engaged in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits. The company operates primarily in Western Australia and Alaska, running a portfolio of high-quality underground and open pit gold mines.     

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 27.245

• Technical Standpoint: NST’s share price has surpassed the R1 recommended on 5 November 2025. The 14-day RSI is now around 62.18, approaching overbought territory. This upward move raises the risk of short-term consolidation or downside retracement.
• Reduced Liquidity Position: Cash and term deposits decreased from AUD 1,690mn in Q4 FY25 to AUD 1,258mn in Q1 FY26, signalling a softer liquidity position quarter-on-quarter.
• Weaker Yandal Performance: Yandal delivered 113koz at an AISC of AUD 2,778/oz in Q1 FY26, compared with 137koz at an AISC of AUD 2,383/oz in Q4 FY25, reflecting lower output and higher costs over the period.
• Business Risk: The company operates in a competitive mining landscape where peer producers can exert pressure on market, while exposure to shifting commodity prices adds uncertainty to revenue and earnings, creating a challenging environment for maintaining consistent financial performance.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month – key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than average of the Basic Materials’ sector. 

NST Daily Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to peers, supported by quarterly sales of 381 koz in line with full-year guidance and by higher production and development rates at the Kalgoorlie Production Centre, particularly KCGM, enhancing operational delivery.

For conducting the valuation, peers including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) and others have been considered.

Given the stock is approaching to its R2 level, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 27.245, as of 27 November 2025, at 11:50 AM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 27 November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices