This report is an updated version of the report published on 4 August 2025 at 12:50 PM AEST.

Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX: MAH)

MAH is an Australian-based mining and civil construction company that provides end-to-end mining and infrastructure services. Founded in 1963 and headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, Macmahon offers services including surface and underground mining, mine planning, drilling and blasting, load and haul, crushing and screening, and equipment maintenance.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.320

• Financial Highlights: MAH group’s net tangible assets (NTA) as of 31 December 2024 declined by 1.8% to AUD 612.1mn from AUD 623.1mn as of 30 June 2024, resulting fall in NTA per share to AUD 28.4 cents. The company's net debt climbed to AUD 236.9mn as of 31 December 2024, a rise from the AUD 146.6mn as of 30 June 2024.
• Technical Resistance Risk Building: With (14-day) RSI nearing 65.47 and price action approaching the R2 level recommended on 16 July 2025, the stock may enter overbought territory. Momentum may face resistance given the fundamental and technical risks.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA, and Price/Earnings) are higher than median of the Basic Materials Sector.
• Market Risk: A significant portion of Macmahon's revenue is derived from a limited set of major contracts, particularly in the gold and copper mining sectors. This concentration makes the company vulnerable to loss or scaling back of any large project by a key client, which could have a material impact on earnings.

MAH’s Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Multiple Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the YoY revenue growth in 1HFY25, strategic acquisition of Decmil, and anticipated revenue & underlying EBIT(A) for FY25. For conducting the valuation, the following peers included: Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP), AIC Mines Ltd (ASX: A1M), Kingston Resources Ltd (ASX: KSN), and other have been considered.

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 0.320, as of 4 August 2025 at 12:35 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 4 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.