Key Highlights

  • Prediction market odds show Anthropic closing the gap with SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) for the largest IPO of 2026.
  • Anthropic's annualized Revenue is on track to top $65 billion, up from a $47 billion pace in May.
  • SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, valuing the company at $1.78 trillion, and closed its first trading day at $160.95.
  • SpaceX shares have since traded as high as roughly $225 and as low as roughly $104, before rallying back to $146.23, a market cap of $1.93 trillion.

Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) isn't public yet, but prediction market odds show it quickly closing the gap with Elon Musk's SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) for the largest initial public offering of 2026.

What Happened

According to Polymarket data, Anthropic's revenue growth is accelerating into a potential fourth-quarter market debut. Anthropic's annualized revenue for 2026 is on track to top $65 billion, up from a $47 billion pace in May. OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), Anthropic's chief rival, which could also debut later this year, is not showing up in Polymarket's data as a contender for the largest IPO of the year.

For now, SpaceX holds the title. The company officially priced its stock at $135 on June 11, offering 555.6 million shares, a pricing that valued SpaceX at $1.78 trillion. The company made its public debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, opening around midday at $150 per share and closing its first day at $160.95, a 19.2% gain from its offering price that pushed its market Capitalization to $2.1 trillion.

Market Reaction

Shares went on to peak around $225 a few weeks later, only to hit lows around $104 as investors weighed lockup expirations and Capital Expenditure plans. SpaceX has since rallied back to $146.23, up 4.45% in a recent session, giving the company a market cap of $1.93 trillion.

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said betting against Elon Musk has historically been a fool's errand, adding that he remains a long-term bull on SpaceX while cautioning investors to expect continued interim Volatility in the name.

Outlook

Anthropic is currently valued at about $1 trillion, compared with $894 billion for OpenAI, underscoring how close the race has become between the two AI labs as both pursue IPO plans, with Anthropic positioned to reach the public markets first.