Key Highlights

  • JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke warned that Anthropic's IPO target multiple of 40-50 times Revenue carries real risk.
  • Anthropic is reportedly pursuing an IPO built on a 2028 sales projection of $190-200 billion.
  • The target multiple is benchmarked against Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), which trades at a 67.94 price-to-sales ratio.
  • Cloudflare (NYSE: NET) was cited as another example of how far AI-era valuation multiples can stretch.

JonesTrading Chief Market Strategist Mike O'Rourke warned on CNBC's Morning Call Sheet that the coming wave of AI IPO listings will hinge on what buyers are willing to pay rather than company quality alone, singling out Anthropic's (ANTH.PVT) valuation target as a specific point of concern.

What Happened

According to Reuters, Anthropic is pursuing an IPO built on a 2028 sales projection of $190 billion to $200 billion, targeting a 40 to 50 times revenue multiple comparable to Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), Cloudflare (NYSE: NET), and SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).

O'Rourke said, "First of all, I think Anthropic is incredible. I think they're a great company. I think Claude is incredible. That said, again, the multiple you want to pay for Assets is where the risk is. If you want to overpay, it's going to be dangerous." He also raised concerns about the market's ability to absorb the coming Supply of new shares, noting that 2026 could bring IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) in the same year. Co-guest Lee Baker added that the circular financing dynamic underpinning AI valuations amounts to "borrowing from Paul to pay Paul," a model he said works temporarily but eventually breaks down.

Market Reaction

Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) is viewed as the closest public comparable to Anthropic's target multiple, trading at a 67.94 price-to-sales ratio after posting Q2 2026 revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149% and a Rule of 40 score of 155. CEO Alex Karp raised full-year guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion on the company's August 3, 2026 earnings call, though shares are down 2.09% year-to-date.

Cloudflare (NYSE: NET) was also cited as an example of stretched AI-era multiples, with Q2 revenue of $696.1 million, up 36% year-over-year, and shares up 60.17% year-to-date. CEO Matthew Prince told analysts that non-human traffic surpassed human traffic online in May 2026, framing the company's opportunity around agent-to-content micropayments.

Outlook

With SpaceX, Anthropic, and potentially OpenAI all pursuing IPOs in the same year, the ability of public markets to absorb that combined supply of new shares, alongside investor tolerance for the elevated multiples being targeted, is likely to remain a central theme shaping sentiment toward AI-related listings through the rest of 2026.