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7-Year US Treasury Yield Forecasts: Making Sense of the 81% Hawkish Fixed-Income Consensus

The fixed-income landscape remains highly sensitive as global markets continuously attempt to project the Federal Reserve's next structural policy maneuvers. While the short end of the yield curve reacts immediately to direct central bank rate adjustments, the belly of the curve—specifically the 7-Year US …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

Crowdsourced Prediction Market Liquidity: What Big Volume Milestones Mean for Institutional Hedging

For years, the chief criticism leveled against prediction markets by institutional asset managers was the lack of deep, dependable liquidity. While the theoretical framework of crowdsourced forecasting was widely praised by economists, the actual order books were historically too thin to absorb large-scale corporate …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve Spread Predictions: Is the Bond Market Forecasting an Economic Normalization or Recession?

The relationship between short-term and long-term government bonds has long served as one of Wall Street's most reliable economic crystal balls. Specifically, the spread between the 10-Year and 2-Year US Treasury yields is scrutinized by macroeconomists globally. For an extended period, an inverted yield …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

The Era of Information Finance: Leveraging Crowdsourced Binary Contracts for Precise Stock Index Target Forecasting

For decades, traditional equity analysis has relied on a familiar cast of characters: sell-side brokerage reports, investment bank consensus estimates, and financial media commentators. While these resources provide extensive narrative context, they frequently suffer from structural biases, personal conflicts of interest, and a significant …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

US Futures Slip and Oil Jumps as Trump Says the Iran Truce Is Over

US stock futures pointed lower on Wednesday as investors weighed a fresh exchange of strikes in the Persian Gulf and looked ahead to the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Contracts tied to the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 all traded …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

Oil Soars Amid Renewed Middle East Conflict After Trump Says Iran Truce Is Over

The trigger was blunt. Speaking at a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, alongside alliance chief Mark Rutte, President Donald Trump said he now believes the Memorandum of Understanding reached with Iran in June has collapsed. He accused Tehran of double dealing and said that, …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

Oil Jumps Over 5% After Trump Says the US Iran Ceasefire Is Over

Speaking at a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, alongside alliance chief Mark Rutte, President Donald Trump said he now believes the Memorandum of Understanding reached with Iran in June has collapsed. He accused Tehran of double dealing and said that, as far as he …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

Russia Tries to Jam Musk's Starlink to Blunt Ukraine's Mid-Strike Drones

Russian forces are working to counter one of Ukraine's most effective battlefield tools by targeting the satellite link that makes it possible. Four drone commanders and pilots told a Reuters crew visiting Ukraine's 422nd Unmanned Systems Regiment in the southern Zaporizhzhia region that Moscow …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

Bitcoin Falls Toward $62,000 as Trump Says the Iran Truce Is Over

Bitcoin dropped sharply on Wednesday, falling more than 3% to around $62,000 after President Donald Trump said the framework behind the US Iran ceasefire had collapsed. Speaking at a NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said the June deal was over and described further dealings …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026

At Least Four Tankers Turn Back From the Strait of Hormuz as Attacks Rattle Shipping

The diversions followed damage to two vessels near the strait on Tuesday, when a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker were hit after reports that Iran fired missiles at ships in the waterway. In response, maritime authorities raised the …

Nitish Kishor | 08 July 2026
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