Key Highlights

● ADM will release third quarter results before the market opens on Tuesday, November 3.

● Second quarter adjusted EPS was $1.84, up from 93 cents, with segment earnings up 75%.

● Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $5.15 to $5.60 in August.

● First-half operating cash flow fell to about $1.3 billion from about $4 billion.

ADM (NYSE:ADM) is approaching its next quarterly report with the wind at its back, at least on the evidence of the guidance it has already issued. The agricultural processor said it will release third quarter financial results on Tuesday, November 3, and market data published October 27 put the call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The date was announced in early October on the company's website for stock owners.

The most recent results are for the second quarter, issued August 4. Adjusted earnings per share more than doubled from the year-earlier quarter to $1.84, driven by oilseed crushing, ethanol and nutrition. Management raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year, pointing to finalized federal biofuel volume requirements and higher energy prices.

When does ADM report, and what do previews expect?

The company's release schedule calls for third quarter results before the market opens on Tuesday, November 3. A market preview expects adjusted earnings of about $1.60 per share on revenue of about $23.27 billion.

That compares with the second quarter, when adjusted earnings were $1.84 and revenue was about $22.68 billion, up 7.2%. The preview also recorded that the same quarter beat the consensus by 35 cents. In other words, expectations for the third quarter sit below the second quarter's actual figure.

Previews of this kind rely on estimates collected from outside Wall Street research desks and can lag the company's own signals. The company's guidance range, rather than any single estimate, is the more reliable frame for what management expects over the full year.

What did ADM report for the second quarter?

ADM reported net earnings attributable to the company of about $908 million, or $1.87 per share under accepted accounting rules, compared with 45 cents a year earlier. Adjusted net earnings were about $895 million, or $1.84 per share, versus 93 cents in the prior-year quarter.

Total segment operating earnings were about $1.45 billion, up 75%. Chief Executive Juan Luciano said ADM delivered robust second quarter financial and operating results and that the company's improved view gave it confidence to raise its earnings guidance again.

The improvement came from a sharp rebound in the businesses that crush oilseeds into meal and oil and in ethanol production, while the nutrition business also improved. The year-earlier quarter had been weak, so the comparison is flattering, and the results illustrate how quickly earnings at a commodity processor can move when margins and regulatory conditions change.

How did ADM's three segments contribute?

Agricultural Services and Oilseeds earned about $867 million in segment operating earnings, up 129%. The company said crushing and agricultural services drove the gain, helped by biofuel mandates and higher energy prices. Carbohydrate Solutions earned about $411 million, up 22%, mainly on stronger ethanol margins. Nutrition earned about $172 million, up 51%, helped by flavors growth and operational improvements.

The mix is notable. Nutrition's 51% gain points to recovery in that business, although the year-earlier base was lower. Ethanol margins and crush margins, on the other hand, depend heavily on commodity prices and government mandates.

For market participants, the question is how much of the second quarter strength is structural. Biofuel requirements provide demand for vegetable oils and ethanol, but margins can shift with crop sizes, trade flows and energy prices, none of which the company controls.

Why did ADM raise guidance twice this year?

In early May, ADM raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $4.15 to $4.70 from $3.60 to $4.25, according to one report. The company linked that change to the finalized renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, which ended a long period of uncertainty over federal biofuel blending mandates.

In August, it raised the range again, to $5.15 to $5.60, citing the same obligations, elevated energy prices and continued improvement in nutrition. Two increases within one year indicate how much the regulatory clarity and market conditions changed the earnings picture.

Guidance is not a result. Wall Street research desks, according to market data, expected about $5.50 for the full year, near the upper part of the range. If the third quarter lands near the preview's estimate, the remaining quarter would need to deliver in line with guidance for the year to fall inside the range.

What did the first quarter show about ADM's recovery?

The first quarter, reported in May, was less impressive on its face. Adjusted earnings were 71 cents per share, above the 66 cents expected, and revenue of about $20.5 billion missed estimates but was up 1.6%. Crushing swung to an operating loss of $79 million because of mark-to-market losses, even though volumes and the margin environment improved.

Agricultural Services and Oilseeds earnings fell 34% to about $273 million, partly offset by shipments of soybeans and sorghum to China and strong corn exports. ADM said clarity on biofuel mandates was providing a stable regulatory framework.

Set beside the second quarter, the first quarter shows the pace of improvement: earnings per share rose from 71 cents to $1.84 in one quarter. It also shows the volatility of mark-to-market accounting, which can produce losses on hedges that later reverse as physical sales are completed.

How strong is ADM's cash flow and dividend coverage?

Net cash from operating activities in the first six months was about $1.3 billion, down from about $4 billion a year earlier, mainly because of working capital changes. Cash flow before working capital was about $1.8 billion. Capital expenditures were about $466 million in the half, and the company projects full-year spending of $1.3 to $1.5 billion.

Dividends paid were about $510 million, up from $495 million. The most recent quarterly dividend was 52 cents per share, with an ex-dividend date in August, according to market data, which put the payout ratio at about 57% of trailing earnings. The release did not mention share retirement.

A large drop in operating cash flow in a strong earnings year is a point to monitor. Working capital at a grain processor depends on commodity prices and inventory levels, and swings can reverse. Still, until they do, the decline means the earnings improvement has not yet translated into higher cash from operations.

Two points deserve attention. First, the dividend has been steady while earnings swung, which signals that the board does not tie the payout to a single quarter. Second, the company disclosed no share retirement in the second quarter release, so cash beyond dividends and capital spending went to debt, working capital and liquidity. Market participants will look to the third quarter filing for the balance sheet detail, including inventories, receivables and short-term borrowings, which at a grain processor move with commodity prices and can change the picture quickly from one quarter to the next.

What uncertainties could affect ADM's next report?

Several challenges remain. Crush margins can compress if soybean oil prices fall or if soybean meal supply swamps demand. Ethanol margins depend on corn prices and energy markets. Trade relations, particularly with China, can alter export volumes for soybeans and other crops.

Regulatory conditions are a further factor. The finalized biofuel volumes provide clarity through 2027, but implementation details, import rules and legal challenges can still shift how much of the benefit reaches processors. Mark-to-market accounting can cause quarterly results to deviate from underlying economics.

Context from the broader sector is also relevant. Grain and oilseed processors benefit when government mandates lift demand for vegetable oils used in renewable diesel and when ethanol margins widen, but they are exposed to weather, trade disputes and swings in freight and energy costs. ADM operates a global origination and processing network, so results in one region can offset or compound those in another. The company has not given a quarterly breakdown of expected earnings by segment, which leaves the segment mix of the November report as one of its less certain features. Mark-to-market timing effects, which hurt crushing in the first quarter, can move earnings between quarters without changing the underlying economics, so a single period rarely tells the whole story for a business of this kind.

The nutrition business also needs to prove that its recovery is sustained. The company's cash flow, as noted, lagged earnings in the first half, and the third quarter will show whether working capital has begun to normalize.

What should readers check in ADM's November 3 release?

Key items are adjusted earnings per share against the guidance range and the preview's estimate, followed by segment results, particularly crushing, ethanol and nutrition. The cash flow statement will show whether the working capital drag eased, and the guidance table will show whether the $5.15 to $5.60 range is kept, narrowed or changed.

The company's commentary on biofuel mandates, trade flows and capital spending will frame the coming quarters. Any change in the dividend or in share retirement plans would also appear in the release.