Key Highlights

● London white sugar settled at $525.70 a tonne on 28 October, up $6.50.

● The March 2027 contract settled at $538.70, leaving the curve in contango.

● The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 deficit of 200,000 tonnes.

● India's state fuel retailers stop buying sugar-based ethanol from 1 November.

London white sugar for December delivery (ICE Futures Europe No. 5, symbol SWZ26) settled at US$525.70 a tonne on 28 October, up US$6.50, the latest settlement available. The session opened at US$520.10 and ranged from US$518.40 to US$530.70, with market reports linking the fade from the high to producer selling at higher levels.

White sugar is priced in US dollars per metric tonne, separately from ICE New York raw sugar No. 11, which is quoted in US cents per pound. Raw sugar rose 0.93% to 19.52 cents in Thursday's session on 29 October, but it is down 3.03% on the week, up 4.89% on the month and 36.69% higher than a year ago.

A Deficit Story Meets Selling at the Top

The white sugar market is held between two forces. Forecasts of a global deficit and weak crops in Asia argue for higher prices, while policy changes in India and fast harvesting in Brazil argue for more supply. Producers have used rallies to sell, and that is why the market faded from its high even on an up day.

The Curve and the White Premium

The forward curve slopes upward. March 2027 settled at US$538.70, up US$7.30, and May 2027 at US$543.50, so later months are priced higher than the front month. December's life-of-contract range runs from US$393.20 to US$567.70, which puts the current price in the upper half of that band.

The white premium shows what refiners earn over raw sugar. March raw sugar settled at 19.34 cents a pound, up 0.14. Converted at 2,204.62 pounds per metric tonne, that is roughly US$426 a tonne, so the March white premium is about US$112 a tonne.

Supply Forecasts Point to a Deficit

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 200,000 tonnes, after a surplus of 1.1 million tonnes in 2025/26. Another forecaster expects a deficit of 300,000 tonnes. Thai sugar millers project 2026/27 output down 17% to 10 million tonnes.

Weather adds to the concern. Indian monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below normal through 30 September, and a strong El Niño is expected to curb rainfall in Brazil, India and Thailand.

India's Ethanol Order and Brazil's Weather

Not all news is supportive. India has ordered state fuel retailers to stop buying sugar-based ethanol from 1 November, which should leave more sugar available for the market. Hot, dry weather forecast for Brazil's Center-South should also speed harvesting.

Brazilian crushing data show how the sugar and ethanol balance has shifted. UNICA, the Brazilian cane industry association, reported cane crushing through August up 1.8% from a year earlier, while sugar output fell 10.3% as more cane went to ethanol.

White Sugar Watch: UNICA Reports, India After 1 November and the March Roll

The next UNICA reports on Brazilian Center-South crushing and the sugar mix, India's decisions on ethanol and exports after 1 November, and the weekly Commitments of Traders data for positioning will guide the next move. Weather forecasts for Brazil, India and Thailand also matter.

Prices could be supported by poor Asian monsoon-related crops, Brazilian mills favouring ethanol or confirmation of a global deficit. They could weaken on faster Brazilian crushing, extra Indian supply or a stronger US dollar.

December is the front month, so continuous price series will move to March 2027 as the contract approaches expiry. Any quoted price should be matched to its contract month before being compared.