Key Highlights

● Raw sugar rose 0.93% to 19.52 US cents a pound in Thursday's session.

● Prices touched 21.28 cents on 14 October, the highest since February 2025.

● India's monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below normal through 30 September.

● Brazilian cane crushing rose 1.8% through August while sugar output fell 10.3%.

Raw sugar rose 0.93% to 19.52 US cents a pound in Thursday's session on 29 October, a modest recovery after a pullback that took futures to about 19.1 cents on 26 October, their lowest since early October. Even so, the price remains about 8% below the 21.28 cents touched on 14 October, the highest since February 2025.

The benchmark is ICE US Sugar No. 11, quoted in cents per pound, with the March 2027 contract (SBH27) the reference month. Raw sugar is down 3.03% on the week, but it is up 4.89% on the month, 30.05% since the start of the year and 36.69% from a year ago.

A Deficit Forecast Against a Retreating Price

The sugar market is working through a tension. Forecasts for 2026/27 point to a global deficit, which supports higher prices, while the price itself has retreated from its October peak as Brazilian harvesting resumed and Indian policy shifted. Today's gain is small against that backdrop.

From the October Peak to Today

The rally to 21.28 cents on 14 October was built on supply worries. Rains in Brazil's Center-South slowed harvesting and disrupted cane crushing earlier in the month, and improved weather has since let cane harvesting resume. The fall to about 19.1 cents on 26 October took back much of the rise, and today's 19.52 cents sits between the low and the high.

India: Weak Monsoon and a Policy Shift

India is the second major influence. Monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below normal as of 30 September, the weakest in 11 years. Thai sugar millers project 2026/27 output of 10 million tonnes, down 17%.

Indian policy is the counterweight. From 1 November, state fuel retailers must stop buying ethanol made from sugar and certain cane-based feedstocks, which could divert more cane towards sugar production. India's duty-free raw sugar import window also expires on 31 October.

Brazil: More Cane, Less Sugar

Brazil is the largest exporter, and its mix between sugar and ethanol drives global supply. UNICA, the Brazilian cane industry association, reported cane crushing through August up 1.8% year on year, but sugar output fell 10.3% because mills sent more cane to ethanol. For June, Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% from a year earlier to 3.903 million tonnes.

Mills can switch between sugar and ethanol, so the decision they make in coming months will shape how much sugar reaches the market.

Deficit Forecasts and El Niño

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 200,000 tonnes after a surplus of 1.1 million tonnes in 2025/26. Other forecasters also expect deficits. A strong El Niño is expected to reduce rainfall in Brazil, India and Thailand, though the effect on actual harvests is not yet known.

Raw Sugar Watch: UNICA, India's Import Window and the March Contract

The next UNICA fortnightly report on Center-South crushing and the sugar mix is the most direct guide. India's import window ending on 31 October, its ethanol rules from 1 November and ICE settlement data for March 2027 will also matter, along with any change in Brazilian ethanol blending policy.

Prices could be supported if Brazilian rain returns, if India's cane and sugar output disappoints or if a strong El Niño dents Thai and Indian yields. They could come under pressure from a larger-than-expected Center-South crush, more cane directed to sugar or additional Indian supply.