Key Highlights

  • CAVA Group shares are trading up 6.83% at $62.75, against a previous close of $58.74.
  • The third-quarter report is due after the close on Nov. 4.
  • Consensus calls for Revenue of roughly $357 million to $358 million and EPS near $0.12.
  • Second-quarter same-restaurant sales growth was 9.0%, with traffic up 5.3%.
  • The stock is well below its 52-week high of $98.79.

CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) shares are rallying ahead of the company's third-quarter Earnings report, due after the close on Nov. 4. The Washington, D.C.-based Mediterranean fast-casual Brand operates more than 450 company-owned restaurants in 29 states, with restaurant sales making up over 95% of revenue. The stock is up sharply, well ahead of the broader consumer discretionary sector.

Rally Builds Ahead of the Q3 Print

The move is helped by falling oil prices on U.S.-Iran diplomacy and a tech stabilization after Friday's selloff. Better-than-expected comparable sales from Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) may also be supporting restaurant names.

Sentiment has been mixed. Mizuho cut its target to $56 from $70 with a Neutral rating, KeyBanc trimmed its target to $80, and Citi, UBS and TD Cowen have also trimmed targets, while Bank of America reiterated Buy. Another research firm upgraded the stock to Buy in October.

Third-Quarter Expectations and Track Record

Consensus calls for EPS of about $0.12, flat year over year, on revenue of roughly $358 million, up about 22%. Analysts estimate about 498 restaurants at period end, up from 415 a year ago, with about 19 new openings, and restaurant-level profit of about $83.8 million.

CAVA has beaten estimates in five of the last seven quarters. In the second quarter it reported EPS of $0.19 against $0.18 and revenue of $368.4 million, up 31.3%.

Same-Restaurant Sales and Traffic Under the Lens

Second-quarter same-restaurant sales growth was 9.0%, with traffic up 5.3%. UBS expects third-quarter same-store sales near 3%, against a consensus of about 3.6%. Management guided fiscal 2026 same-restaurant sales growth to 4.5% to 6.5% and 75 to 77 net new openings. Food-safety concerns are also in focus.

The company has authorized a $100 million buyback, opened its first Wisconsin restaurant and targets at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032. CAVA Foods makes dips and spreads sold through grocery retailers such as Whole Foods.

Valuation Markers and Metrics to Follow

The stock trades at 86.85 times forward earnings and 113.51 times trailing earnings, with a market Capitalization of about $7.33 billion. Its 52-week range runs from $43.41 to $98.79. Investors will follow same-restaurant sales, traffic, restaurant-level Margin and any update to the FY2026 guidance range in the report.