Key Highlights

● Brent crude rose 3.06% to $114.19 a barrel in Friday's session.

● Brent is up 11.58% on the month and 76.24% from a year ago.

● The four-year high of $116.72 was reached on 23 October.

● Europe plans to release 42 million barrels from reserves over three months.

Brent crude oil rose 3.06% to US$114.19 a barrel in Friday's session on 30 October, moving back toward the four-year high of US$116.72 reached on 23 October. Renewed talk of US military Options against Iran and tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz put a fresh risk premium into the global benchmark.

The gain of US$3.39 leaves Brent down 2.20% on the week, a reminder of how far prices fell earlier, but up 11.58% on the month, 87.60% since the start of the year and 76.24% from a year ago. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.85% to US$104.91, so the Brent premium over WTI stands at about US$9.29 a barrel.

A Weekly Loss Reversed in a Session

Brent has swung widely. Earlier moves this week eased the benchmark from its high on hopes for diplomacy, and Friday's jump has recovered a large part of that decline. A market that can move by more than US$3 in one session is trading headlines more than fundamentals, and the headlines on Friday were hawkish.

What Lifted Prices on Friday

Reports said a senior US military commander had briefed President Donald Trump on options for renewed strikes against Iran, and that Trump has repeatedly threatened further military action. Tehran confirmed receipt of a letter from US Vice President JD Vance aimed at reviving peace negotiations, but signalled that it would not soften its position on ending the conflict.

Shipping added to the unease. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified after tanker incidents, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said three tankers struck sea mines south of the strait. Further north, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian refinery in the Samara region, while Moscow launched another overnight attack against Ukraine. Together the events reinforced concern about global oil Supply security.

The Waterway That Set the Year's Price Path

Brent's path this year runs through Hormuz. Traffic was largely halted or restricted from March to May, a period in which prices surged. By 24 June Brent had closed at US$73.74, its lowest close since 28 February, before climbing again to the current level. Regional crude exports have since recovered to levels close to those before the war, which shows how much of the present price depends on keeping the strait open.

Supply Offsets and Tight Stocks

Some supply is coming back. Russian refinery runs have rebounded by 350,000 barrels a day to 4 million, and Europe plans to release 42 million barrels from strategic reserves over three months, a large share of it diesel. Additional fuel-export quotas in China and higher production elsewhere are also expected to improve availability of refined products.

US inventory data point the other way. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stocks down 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended 23 October, against a forecast for a rise of 15,000 barrels. US stocks bear most directly on WTI, but Brent traders watch them as a gauge of global tightness.

Brent Watch: Hormuz Flows, the Spread and the Midterms

The next political date is the US midterm election on 3 November, which reports link to possible military decisions on Iran. Shipping traffic through Hormuz, any further tanker incidents and the next weekly US inventory report will guide prices in the meantime.

Brent could test its four-year high if peace efforts collapse, if US strikes resume or if attacks on tankers and Gulf facilities escalate. It could ease if talks restart, if shipping risk falls or if the European reserve release and rebounding Russian runs add enough supply. The US$9.29 spread to WTI is another gauge, since a wider gap shows the international market carrying more of the risk premium than the US market.