Key Highlights

● Ethanol fell 0.28% to $1.77 a gallon in the latest reading, dated 29 October.

● Ethanol is down 13.45% on the month and 5.09% on the week.

● US ethanol stocks were steady on the week and up 9.6% on the year.

● Green Plains holds its third-quarter Earnings Call on 5 November.

Ethanol fell 0.28% to US$1.77 a gallon in the latest reading, dated 29 October after a month-long slide. The price matters to producers such as Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE) and Valero (NYSE:VLO), which both operate ethanol plants and sell into a market that is well stocked.

The reading is down 5.09% on the week and 13.45% on the month. It is still 11.50% higher since the start of the year and 6.31% above a year ago, so the recent fall comes from a higher base. Ethanol has no single global price, and this figure is the US dollar-per-gallon series, which does not move in step with Brazilian or other markets.

Supply Is the Pressure Point

The weekly Energy Information Administration report is the main fundamental gauge for ethanol, and it has pointed to ample Supply all month. The latest report showed US ethanol stocks steady on the week and up 9.6% from a year earlier. In the previous reports stocks were up 12% on the year on 21 October, 5.8% on 15 October and 4.5% on 7 October.

Stocks that remain above last year's level while holding steady week on week point to production and Demand being broadly matched, with no shortage to lift prices. For sellers, a 9.6% surplus to last year is a headwind that margins have to absorb.

Gasoline Sets the Backdrop

Ethanol is blended into gasoline, so the two prices are watched together. Gasoline futures rose 3.01% to US$3.18 a gallon on Friday as crude jumped, while ethanol edged lower. At US$1.77 a gallon, ethanol trades at roughly 56% of the gasoline price, a wide discount that supports blending.

The gasoline market has its own inventory story. The EIA reported that US gasoline stocks rose by about 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels in the week ended 23 October, against a forecast for a draw. That adds supply to the fuel that ethanol is blended into, though the report did not discuss ethanol itself.

Corn, Policy and Exports

Corn is the main feedstock for US ethanol, so corn costs and plant margins matter alongside the fuel price. Blending rules and renewable fuel obligations shape demand, and export demand adds to it. For ethanol makers the gap between the fuel price and the cost of corn is the number that drives earnings.

What It Means for Ethanol Producers and Refiners

Green Plains is an ethanol and agricultural-technology company. It produces ethanol and co-products, so Revenue is sensitive to the ethanol price, while corn is its main input cost. The company holds its third-quarter 2026 earnings call on 5 November. REX American Resources (NYSE:REX) also has ethanol plant interests, with a similar sensitivity to the ethanol-corn margin, and Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) processes corn into ethanol among many other products, so its exposure is spread across agricultural lines.

Valero is both a producer and a large buyer of ethanol for blending. It reported third-quarter net profit of US$6.828 billion on 22 October, and its net exposure depends on the balance between its ethanol production and its refining activities. A higher ethanol price lifts revenue at its plants but raises the cost of blending for its refineries.

Ethanol Watch: Weekly Stocks and Green Plains on 5 November

The EIA publishes its next weekly report on Wednesday, and the stock figure will show whether the surplus to last year is widening or narrowing. Green Plains reports on 5 November. Crude and gasoline moves, and any news on blending policy, will also matter.

Ethanol could firm if gasoline and crude keep rising, if producers cut output because margins are poor or if exports increase. It could weaken if stocks keep running above last year, if corn costs rise or if gasoline demand softens.