Key Highlights

● RBOB gasoline slipped 0.31% to US$3.2255 per gallon on Monday.

● US gasoline stocks rose 3.5 million barrels in the week to 9 October.

● RBOB is 76.50% above a year earlier despite a 7.11% monthly decline.

● Marathon reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of US$8.5 billion and 94% utilisation.

RBOB gasoline slipped 0.31% to US$3.2255 per US gallon on Monday 19 October, extending a month in which prices are down 7.11%. The move matters to Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), a large refiner and marketer that earns the spread between product and crude, so the gasoline price counts on both sides of its business.

The November 2026 contract was at about US$3.2350 at the close on 16 October. RBOB is 2.08% lower on the week and 7.11% lower on the month, yet still 76.50% above a year earlier and 88.40% higher year to date. The market has dipped but remains far above last year's level.

Crude Is Climbing While Gasoline Drifts

The central tension is the gap between crude and gasoline. Brent and WTI have been strong, but gasoline has not followed, so the spread refiners earn has narrowed.

Crude Surges on Middle East Risk

A daily petroleum report said Brent settled at US$109.86 a barrel on 16 October, up US$3.94 and the highest since 19 May, while WTI closed at US$101.41. It cited reports of potential attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and a ballistic missile intercepted heading for the port of Yanbu. On Monday, Brent was at about US$108.16, down 1.55%, and WTI at US$100.68, down 0.72%.

Brent rose 4.9% over the week and WTI 10.4%, yet RBOB is lower over the month. Gasoline has not simply tracked crude.

Inventories Say Supply Is Comfortable

US gasoline stocks rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week to 9 October, the second weekly increase in a row, which eased concerns about tight supply. Futures fell below US$3.15 on 15 October, a two-week low, before rebounding on 16 October.

Higher refinery runs are one reason inventories can rise, and weaker consumption is another. Pump prices usually rise faster than they fall, a pattern often described as "rockets and feathers", so any fall in wholesale prices may reach drivers slowly.

Emergency Stocks and Geopolitics Pull in Different Directions

Several measures work to cap supply risk. The International Energy Agency agreed to speed the release of the remaining emergency stocks, which come to 100 million barrels, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. The United States asked for proposals to exchange up to 17 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

At the same time, Russia and Ukraine appear to be moving away from a US-backed energy truce, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries continuing, and attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and by Houthi militants add to supply risk.

What the Official Forecasts Assume

The EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook is the main official reference. It forecasts retail gasoline at US$3.91 a gallon on average in 2026 and US$3.56 in 2027, having averaged US$4.35 in September. It expects Brent to average US$105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and to ease towards US$87 by the second quarter of 2027, assuming Middle East supply gradually recovers. The forecasts depend on assumptions about the Strait of Hormuz.

RBOB is the NYMEX Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygen Blending contract, quoted in US dollars per gallon, with each contract covering 42,000 gallons. It is the main US wholesale benchmark and differs from retail pump prices, which include taxes, distribution and retail margins.

A Refiner Lives on the Spread

Marathon is a large refiner and marketer. In the second quarter it reported adjusted EBITDA of US$8.5 billion and 94% utilisation, with a Gulf Coast rate of 100%, and guided to third-quarter throughput of 2.8 million barrels a day. Management expects an "enhanced mid-cycle" environment into 2027 but said turnarounds, worth about US$290 million in the third quarter, would weigh on margin capture. A gasoline price that lags crude is a risk for a refiner as much as a benefit.

Gasoline Watch: Wednesday's EIA Report and the November Expiry

The EIA's weekly petroleum status report on Wednesday 21 October will show whether gasoline stocks built for a third week. Further attacks on energy infrastructure, a drawdown in gasoline stocks and refinery outages would support prices. A third weekly stock build, quicker release of emergency oil and any easing around Hormuz would weigh on them. The balance between crude and product prices will matter for refiner profits.

The November RBOB contract expires at the end of October, and a roll to December means comparisons across that point reflect a different delivery month. The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due on 10 November. Refiner third-quarter results will show how turnaround costs, which Marathon put at about US$290 million for the quarter, affected margin capture.